336.1 
R175L 


Robert  Rantoul,  Jr.  Letter  to  Robert 
-Schuyler,  Pres.  of  the  ICRR,  on  the 
Value  of  the  Public  Lands  of  Ill. 


ILLINOIS  HISTORICAL  S.URYJEV: 


, 

C 

LETTER 


TO 


PRESIDENT  OF  THE 

ILLINOIS    CENTRAL    RAILROAD, 

ON   THE 

YALUE  OF  THE  PUBLIC  LANDS 

i  , 

OF  ILLINOIS. 


BY  ROBERT  RANTOUL,  JR., 

ONE  OF  THE  DIRECTORS. 


BOSTON: 
PRESS    OF    DAMRELL    &    MOORE, 

16  Devonshire  Street. 

1851. 


LETTER. 


BEVERLY,  September  1st,  1851. 

SIR  : — In  entering,  at  your  request,  into  an  inquiry  as  to  the  prospective 
value  of  lands  in  Illinois,  I  think  it  proper  to  examine  the  general  con- 
siderations which  will  influence  the  settlement  of  that  State,  because  it 
seems  to  me  that  by  this  course  we  may  arrive  at  a  result  much  more 
satisfactory  and  certain  than  by  comparing  the  prices  of  land  in  particu- 
lar localities,  or  by  collecting  the  opinions  of  individuals.  The  Illinois 
Central  Railroad  is  to  be  the  main  artery  of  communication  between 
vast  sections  of  this  continent,  and  its  value  depends  upon  the  amount 
of  intercourse  between  those  sections,  and  upon  the  business  of  the  popu- 
lation along  the  line.  What  this  population  is  likely  to  number  at  any 
given  date  may  be  judged  from  facts  positively  and  officially  ascertained, 
so  that  the  reader,  if  not  satisfied  with  our  conclusions,  will  have  before 
him  the  means  to  form  his  own. 

The  territory  of  the  United  States  consists  of  four  great  natural  divi- 
sions, two  slopes  toward  the  ocean  on  the  east  and  west,  and  two  val- 
->  fK   leys  or  basins,  one  stretching  from  the  centre  of  the  continent  easterly, 
d  ^Q  the  other  from  the  same  centre  southerly.     The  natural  route  of  the 
largest  travel  to  and  from  each  of  these  divisions  lies  through  the   State 
of  Illinois.     The  passage  from  the  Basin  of  the  Lakes  and  the  St.  Law- 
rence, an  area  of  about  one  million  of  square  miles,  to  the   central  and 
/?  southern  parts  of  the  Valley  of  the  Mississippi  must  necessarily  be  from 
the  southern  extremity  of  Lake  Michigan  through  Illinois.     The  travel 
'  from  the  northern  portion  of  the  Atlantic  slope,  the  nine  North  Eastern 
j   States,  having  already  more  than  eight  and  a  half  millions  of  inhabitants, 
must  follow  the  same  route  to  reach  the  same  destination.     The  line  of 

-P 


H 


4 

our  road,  continued  to  Mobile,  or  by  steamboat  down  the  river,  links  the 
Basin  of  the  Lakes  to  the  Gulf  of  Mexico,  so  that  all  the  trade  and  travel 
of  that  Basin  to  and  from  the  West  India  Islands,  Mexico,  and  Central 
America,  and  across  the  Gulf  to  the  Pacific  Coast  of  North  and  South 
America,  naturally  pass  that  way.  Illinois  therefore  is  not  only  acces- 
sible from  all  quarters,  but  on  the  line  of  the  principal  thoroughfares  of 
the  continent ;  and  when  those  thoroughfares  are  once  opened  for  the 
cheapest  and  speediest  travel  and  transportation  through  the  whole 
length  of  her  territory,  all  her  resources  must  be  at  once  revealed  to  the 
world  :  if  her  lands  offer  the  strongest  inducements  to  settlers,  that  fact 
must  be  almost  immediately  known,  appreciated  and  acted  upon. 

The  States  northwest  of  the  Ohio  are  seven  in  number,  five  of  them 
east,  and  two  of  them  west  of  the  Mississippi.  Of  these,  the  three 
older  States,  which  are  those  bordering  on  the  Ohio,  are  so  far  settled 
that  the  Government  has  alieady  parted  with  more  than  five-sixths  of 
the  lands  within  their  limits,  while  in  the  other  four  States  the  Govern- 
ment retains  as  yet  more  than  two-thirds  of  the  lands.  The  unsold  lands 
in  the  three  older  of  these  States  are  distributed  as  follows : 

Ohio,  containing  25,576,960  acres  :  Unsold  367,742  acres. 
Indiana,      «       21,637,760     "  "     1,511,266     " 

Illinois,       "       35,459,200     "  "  11,449,471     " 


The  three  States    "       82,673,920    "  "  13,328,479     " 

The  land  unsold  in  Ohio  and  Indiana  is  less  than  would  be  required 
to  furnish  farms  of  the  ordinary  extent  for  one  year's  natural  increase 
of  the  population  of  those  States,  allowing  nothing  for  emigration.  For 
all  practical  purposes,  therefore,  we  may  regard  the  public  lands  of  those 
two  States  as  exhausted,  and  those  of  Illinois  come  into  competition  only 
with  the  four  younger  States,  as  yet  but  sparsely  settled,  Michigan,  Wis- 
consin, Iowa  and  Missouri.  These  last  four  States  contain  more  than 
one  hundred  and  forty-six  millions  of  acres,  of  which  more  than  ninety- 
eight  millions  remain  to  be  disposed  of  by  the  General  Government. 
[See  Tables  A  and  B] 

To  determine  the  disposable  value  of  land  in  Illinois,  it  will  be  con- 
venient to  take  as  a  criterion  that  of  some  other  State  more  densely  peo- 
pled, say  for  instance  Ohio,  and  make  that  the  basis  of  our  reasoning. 
We  are  in  no  danger  of  being  carried  too  far  by  this  method,  because 
we  institute  a  comparison  between  the  most  fertile  land  in  the  world 
and  that  which  is  much  less  productive  ;  and  between  land  bordering  on 


a  perfect  railroad  and  having  the  best  access  to  market,  and  the  whole 
surface  of  Ohio,  much  of  it  not  so  accessible.  It  will  be  found  also  that 
the  price  of  land  continues  to  increase  in  a  ratio  much  greater  than  the 
density  of  population.  Massachusetts  has  about  two  and  a  half  times  as 
many  inhabitants  to  a  square  mile  as  Ohio,  but  land  as  good  as  that  of 
Ohio,  and  cultivated  with  as  little  cost  and  labor,  is  worth  more  than 
five  times  as  much  in  Massachusetts  as  the  official  valuation  in  Ohio. 

What  then  is  the  present  value  of  land  in  Ohio,  for  agricultural  pur- 
poses, estimated  at  a  rate  low  enough  to  form  a  safe  basis  for  prudent 
calculations  ? 

The  official  valuation  of  all  the  lands  subject  to  taxation  in  Ohio,  ex 
elusive  of  that  included  in  towns,  was  23,768,^35  acres  estimated  at 
$264,661,957,  which  gives  an  average  of  $11. 13^  per  acre,  for  the 
year  1849.  Towns  are  separately  valued  at  a  further  sum  of  more 
than  seventy  millions  of  dollars.  It  is  generally  supposed  that  to  this 
assessment  for  the  purpose  of  taxation,  at  least  one-third  should  be 
added  to  ascertain  the  true  selling-,  price  ;  if  we  add  one-fourth  only,  it 
gives  us  $13.91^  as  the  real  value  in  1849,  which  at  the  present  time, 
1851,  must  be  increased  at  least  six  per  cent.,  giving  $14.75  per  acre. 
The  more  thoroughly  this  estimate  is  examined,  the  more  undeniably 
will  it  appear  that  it  is  below  the  true  value,  yet  to  place  our  data  be- 
yond the  reach  of  cavil,  let  us  admit  the  price  per  acre  to  be  $12  only. 
A  ready  test  to  be  applied  to  this  price  is  to  see  what  rate  it  would  give 
in  other  States  more  settled,  and  also  in  those  less  settled,  if  the  price 
rose  in  the  ratio  of  the  density  of  population. 

This  rule  would  give  per  acre,  for  Mass.  $33.00  ;  Conn.  $18.84 ; 
New  York  $16.00:  Penn.  $12.90;  Ind.  $7.20;  Ken.  $6.25; 
Mich.  $1.71 ;  Wis.  $1.33  ;  Iowa  .92  ;  Mo.  $2.40. 

Those  acquainted  with  these  States,  will  at  once  pronounce  these 
prices  to  be  far  below  the  value  of  land  in  each  of  them. 

Is  the  productive  capacity  of  the  land  sufficient  to  yield  a  fair  return 
on  the  investment  ?  Because  if  it  be  not,  the  price  cannot  be  expected 
to  rise  higher  than  the  rate  which  will  give  a  rent  equal  to  the  average 
of  other  States.  In  the  report  of  the  Commissioner  of  Patents  for  1849, 
page  232,  it  is  stated  that  there  are  jive  or  six  States  in  this  Union  in 
which  "  men  can  grow  maize  on  common  soil,  place  the  crop  in  a  crib  at 
from  six  to  ten  cents  a  bushel,  and  pay  a  fair  price  for  the  labor."  This 
can  be  done  much  cheaper  in  Central  Illinois  than  in  the  average  of 
these  five  or  six  States.  Corn  is  often  raised  at  or  below  five  cents. 


6 

The  produce  of  an  acre  is,  at  a  low  rate,  fifty  bushels — say  at  8 
cents—  -  $4.00 

Hauling  to  railroad,  .  .50 

Transportation  150  miles  at  4  cents  per  ton,          -          9.00 

2  7ce  nts  per  bushel,  per  acre,  $13.50 

If  the  price  at  Chicago  should  not  go  below  37  cents,  an  immense 
exportation  may  be  depended  upon.  If  delivered  in  Liverpool  low 
enough  to  be  used  by  British  graziers  for  fatting  cattle,  the  quantity  re- 
quired for  their  consumption  is  almost  beyond  calculation.  But  this 
price,  after  so  long  a  journey  as  150  miles,  gives  a  net  profit  of  ten 
cents  a  bushel,  or  five  dollars  per  acre,  which  is  equal  to  an  interest  of 
twenty  per  cent,  on  an  original  investment  of  twenty-five  dollars  per 
acre. 

Suppose  corn  carried  upon  the  railroad  half  this  distance,  or  seventy- 
five  miles.  It  may  be  brought  great  distances  to  the  depot  for  this  pur- 
pose, by  means  of  plank  roads,  which  will  speedily  be  constructed. 

Fifty  bushels,  at  8  cents,  cost       -  $4.00 

Conveyance  to  depot,  say  -  1.00 

Transportation  75  miles,  4.50 

Cost  delivered  at  the  Lake,  -  $9.50 

Value  at  the  Lake,     -  37  cts. 

Cost,  19 

Net  profit  per  bushel,  18  cts. 

This  would  realize  nine  dollars  profit,  or  twenty  per  cent,  on  an  invest- 
ment of  forty-five  dollars  per  acre. 

If  an  article  so  bulky  as  corn  cannot  be  profitably  carried  the  whole 
length  of  the  railroad,  it  is  to  be  recollected  that  animal  products  can 
bear  transportation  three  or  four  times  as  far  as  corn,  and  still  pay  a 
much  smaller  per  centage  on  their  cost.  The  freight  of  a  barrel  of 
pork  three  hundred  miles  will  not  exceed  a  dollar  and  fifty  cents  at  the 
outset :  and  the  rates  of  toll  assumed  are  capable  of  very  great  reduc- 
tion, so  soon  as  the  business  of  the  road  requires  the  construction  of  a 
double  track ;  a  contingency  not  far  distant  in  the  future. 

It  is  plain  from  these  remarks  that  all  the  land  within  fifteen  miles  of 
the  Central  Railroad  is  intrinsically  worth,  from  its  power  of  produc- 
tion, not  only  as  much  as,  but  an  average  twice  as  high  as  that  which 
we  have  assumed  to  be  the  selling  price  of  Ohio  lands.  Such  an  aver- 


age  might  be  realized,  if  the  supply  of  such  lands  were  not  much  greater 
than  the  demand  for  cultivation. 

It  becomes  then  necessary  to  inquire  how  long  will  the  supply  exceed 
the  demand,  not  for  speculation,  because  that  is  too  precarious  and  un- 
steady for  our  consideration,  but  the  demand  by  actual  settlers  for  culti- 
vation. We  have  official  data  by  which  this  question  can  be  answered, 
approximately,  but  as  definitely  and  with  as  strong  a  probability  of  cor- 
rectness as  any  thing  future  can  be  known,  which  depends  on  the  volun- 
tary action  and  separate  judgment  of  multitudes  of  individual  men. 

The  quantity  of  land  taken  up  by  each  occupant  in  the  Western 
States  differs,  of  course,  with  the  density  of  population,  and  the  price 
to  which  land  has  risen.  In  the  State  of  Ohio,  the  land  sold  and 
granted  averages  less  than  thirteen  acres  per  head  for  the  whole  popu- 
lation ;  in  Indiana  it  is  twenty  and  one-third  acres,  and  in  Illinois  twenty- 
eight  acres  per  head.  In  the  other  four  North  Western  States  it  slightly 
exceeds  thirty  acres.  [See  Table  C.] 

The  eleven  millions  of  acres  of  land  not  yet  taken  up  in  Illinois  would 
supply  a  population  of  a  little  more  than  four  hundred  thousand  persons 
with  twenty-eight  acres  each,  the  quantity  thus  far  in  Illinois.  This 
increase  to  her  population,  at  the  ordinary  rate,  will  acrue  in  six  or 
seven  years.  If  the  land  were  divided  in  the  same  proportion  as  hi 
Indiana,  it  would  be  sufficient  for  about  five  hundred  and  sixty-five  thou- 
sand persons.  If  divided  as  in  Ohio,  it  would  supply  nine  hundred  and 
five  thousand.  But,  unless  the  rate  of  increase  should  be  checked,  which 
there  is  no  reason  to  apprehend,  five  hundred  and  sixty-five  thousand 
persons  will  be  added  to  the  population  of  Illinois  in  eight  years,  and  nine 
hundred  and  five  thousand  in  twelve  years.  The  ordinary  increase  of 
population,  such  as  causes  already  existing  have  been  sufficient  to  main- 
tain for  the  last  fifty  years,  without  the  aid  of  artificial  channels  of  inter- 
course, will  be  quite  sufficient  to  exhaust,  twelve  years  before  your  bonds 
fall  due,  the  whole  quantity  of  land  owned  by  the  Government  in  Illinois 
on  the  30th  of  June,  1850.  This  quantity,  however,  is  very  far  beyond 
that  now  remaining  at  the  disposal  of  the  United  States,  as  I  shall  have 
occasion  to  show. 

If,  without  referring  to  the  quantity  of  unsold  land,  we  inquire  simply 
how  soon  the  tract  through  which  the  road  is  to  pass  will  arrive  at  the 
average  density  of  population  of  Ohio,  we  observe,  that  if  the  road  be  of 
the  length  generally  anticipated,  there  will  be  included  within  fifteen 
miles  of  the  line,  about  twenty  thousand  square  miles  of  surface,  having 
at  present  about  three  hundred  thousand  inhabitants.  Seven  hundred 


8 

thousand  must  therefore  be  added  to  reach  an  average  of  fifty  to  the 
mile.  Suppose  only  two-thirds  of  the  additional  population  of  the  State 
to  settle  within  fifteen  miles  of  the  railroad,  and  still  the  requisite  den- 
sity will  be  reached,  at  the  rate  of  increase  of  Illinois  for  the  last  ten 
years,  in  thirteen  years  from  the  present  date  ;  that  is  to  say,  about  the 
1st  of  September,  1864.  The  State  would  then  contain,  besides  the 
million  of  inhabitants  within  fifteen  miles  of  the  Central  Railroad,  al- 
most an  equal  number  occupying  the  remaining  three-fifths  of  its  terri- 
tory, at  an  average  density  of  twenty-seven  to  the  square  mile,  about  the 
average  already  reached  by  the  whole  State  of  Indiana  ;  and  the  pub- 
lic lands  would  of  course  be  exhausted  as  they  already  are  in  Ohio  and 
Indiana.  The  lands  in  the  possession  of  private  holders  might  then  be 
expected  to  bear  prices  compared  to  those  of  Ohio  and  Indiana,  respec- 
tively, in  the  proportion  of  their  fertility,  and  power  of  access  to  markets 
for  their  produce. 

These  calculations  all  proceed  upon  the  hypothesis  that  the  rate  of  in- 
crease of  population  in  Illinois  is  to  continue  the  same  for  the  next  thir- 
teen years,  that  it  has  been  since  1840.  There  are  obvious  reasons  why 
a  much  more  rapid  progress  might  be  counted  on,  if  it  were  not  wholly 
unnecessary  to  make  out  a  stronger  case  than  this  establishes  for  us. 

During  the  last  ten  years  Illinois  has  labored  under  a  debt,  of  a  mag- 
nitude absolutely  overwhelming,  when  compared  with  her  resources  at 
the  commencement  of  that  period.  She  had  then  before  her  a  very 
gloomy  alternative.  If  she  endeavored  to  meet  even  the  interest  of  her 
obligations  she  would  be  crushed  under  the  weight  of  an  intolerable  taxa- 
tion, from  which  her  most  able  and  enterprising  citizens  would  have  fled 
into  other  States.  If  she  abandoned  the  effort  in  despair  of  the  possi- 
bility of  success,  then  she  must  suffer  all  the  consequences  of  the  total 
loss  of  credit  consequent  on  her  bankruptcy.  In  neither  case  did  it  seem 
to  be  probable  that  her  public  works  could  be  made  available  towards 
the  discharge  of  the  debt  incurred  for  them,  or  aid  to  develop  the 
resources  of  the  State.  Why  should  an  emigrant  from  the  old  world, 
or  from  the  other  States,  with  the  broad  valley  of  the  Mississippi  open 
before  him  where  to  choose,  voluntarily  assume  a  full  share  of  these  em- 
barrassments by  becoming  a  citizen  of  Illinois  ?  The  answer  which 
emigrants  have  given  to  this  question  may  be  seen  in  the  settlement  of 
Wisconsin,  which  State,  with  a  colder  climate  and  a  harder  soil  than 
Illinois,  has  added  to  her  population  more  than  eight  hundred  and  eighty 
per  cent,  in  the  last  ten  years  :  a  progress  unprecedented  in  the  history 
of  the  world,  in  any  agricultural  community. 


9 

Ten  years  ago  Illinois,  borne  down  with  debt,  had  not  only  not  a  mile 
of  railroad,  or  canal,  or  plank  road,  in  operation  within  her  borders,  but 
no  reasonable  plan  had  been  agreed  upon  by  which  she  could  hope  to 
diminish  her  debt,  discharge  her  interest,  or  acquire  facilities  of  commu- 
nication. She  has  now  her  canal  debt  rapidly  approaching  towards  ex- 
tinction, revenues  sufficient  in  a  very  short  time  to  discharge  her  whole 
interest  without  increasing  the  rate  of  taxation,  one  hundred  miles  of 
canal,  and  a  still  greater  length  of  railroad,  in  highly  profitable  opera- 
tion, with  plank  roads  in  great  numbers  paying  dividends  large  enough 
to  insure  the  early  construction  of  several  thousand  miles  more.  Not 
only  so,  but  she  has  before  her  the  certainty  that  she  will  be  supplied 
with  more  than  twelve  hundred,  perhaps  it  may  be  safely  said,  more  than 
fifteen  hundred  miles  of  railroad  in  the  next  five  or  six  years  ;  and  chan- 
nels are  already  constructed  to  convey  her  products,  transported  to  her 
borders  on  these  railroads,  through  Michigan,  Indiana,  and  the  Eastern 
States,  to  the  seaboard  and  abroad.  If,  paralyzed  as  she  was  for  the  last 
ten  years,  her  growth  was  at  about  the  same  rate  as  that  of  Michigan, 
having  less  than  half  as  dense  a  population,  with  her  railroads  and  her 
lake  borders  and  her  steamboats  ;  about  the  same  as  that  of  Missouri 
with  only  two-thirds  as  dense  a  population,  and  with  the  Queen  City  of 
the  Great  River  in  her  centre  receiving  the  whole  current  of  emigra- 
tion up  the  Mississippi ;  about  the  same  numerically  as  that  of  Wisconsin 
and  Iowa  together,  these  two  starting  with  a  hundred  thousand  square 
miles  of  land  unoccupied,  wholly  unencumbered  with  debt  and  accessi- 
ble from  the  lake  and  from  the  river  ; — why  should  she  not,  in  her  present 
healthy  condition,  her  limbs  unshackled  and  her  pathway  free  before  her, 
advance,  with  the  step  of  a  giant  refreshed,  towards  her  natural  position 
among  the  first  in  population,  power,  and  wealth  of  the  North  American 
confederacy  of  States  ? 

Even  under  all  the  disadvantages  which  have  impeded  the  progress  of 
Illinois  during  the  last  ten  years,  disadvantages  whose  effect  it  would  not 
be  easy  to  over-estimate,  the  growth  of  those  sections  of  the  State  which 
can  be  easily  reached  from  the  northeast  has  been  such  as  to  afford  an 
indication  of  what  may  be  expected  from  the  whole  area  when  it  is  once 
made  equally  accessible.  The  two  land  districts  of  Chicago  and  Dixon, 
forming  the  northern  section  of  the  State,  contain  together  14,126 
square  miles,  or  about  one-fourth  of  the  land  in  the  State.  This  northern 
section  alone  is  accessible  from  Lake  Michigan,  and  of  course  has 
received  the  whole  benefit,  in  common  with  the  southeastern  part  of 
Wisconsin,  of  the  lines  of  steamboats  from  Buffalo  and  Detroit,  and  of 
2 


10 

the  travel  over  the  Michigan  Central  Railroad.  It  had  by  the  last 
census,  two  hundred  and  fifty-five  thousand,  eight  hundred  and  seventy 
inhabitants,  or  eighteen  to  the  square  mile  ;  and  is  divided  into  twenty- 
four  counties.  If  we  take  separately  the  northern  belt  across  the  whole 
breadth  of  the  State  we  shall  include  in  thirteen  counties,  every  county 
within  fifteen  miles  of  which  the  Chicago  and  Galena  Railroad  route 
passes.  These  thirteen  counties  increased  about  two  hundred  and 
eighty  per  cent,  in  the  last  ten  years  in  the  number  of  their  inhab- 
itants ;  having,  in  1840,  six  and  one-half  to  a  square  mile,  and  in  1850, 
about  twenty-five  to  the  square  mile. 

If  we  now  take  the  belt  directly  south  of  this,  including  the  eleven 
counties  which  constitute  the  remainder  of  the  Chicago  and  Dixon  land 
districts,  we  shall  find  that  these  are  the  counties  accessible  from  the 
Lake  thrc  ugh  the  Illinois  and  Michigan  Canal.  These  eleven  counties 
increased  in  population  one  hundred  and  nine  per  cent,  in  the  last  ten 
years.  They  had,  in  1840,  five  and  one-third  inhabitants  to  the  square 
mile,  while  in  1850,  they  had  a  fraction  over  eleven  to  the  square  mile. 
The  remaining  seventy-five  counties  of  the  State,  having  no  convenient 
access  from  the  East  for  emigrants,  and  to  the  eastern  markets  for 
produce,  have  increased  fifty-two  and  a  half  per  cent,  in  ten  years  ;  and 
while  in  1840  they  had  nine  and  a  half  inhabitants  to  the  square  mile, 
or  fifty  per  cent,  more  than  the  northern  section,  in  1850  they  had  but 
fourteen  and  a  half  to  the  square  mile,  or  little  more  than  half  the  aver- 
age density  of  the  thirteen  northern  counties.  All  these  particulars 
are  more  distinctly  presented  in  the  following  table  :  — 

Illinois.  Sq.  miles.      Pop.  1840.     Tosq.m.       1850.       Tosq.m.    In.pr.ct. 

13  Counties,     7,200   46,992  6.52  178,417  24.78  279.6 
11    "        6,926   37,057  5.35   77,393  11.17  109.0 

24    "       14,126   84,049  5.95  255,810  18.10  204.3 
75    "       41,279  392,134  9.50  599,574  14.50   52.9 

99    "       55,405  475,183  8.59  855,384  15.04   79.2 

The  twenty-four  counties,  therefore,  of  the  Chicago  and  Dixon  land 
districts  of  Illinois  exhibit,  and  enable  us  to  measure  the  influence  of 
Lake  Michigan  in  opening  a  cheap  highway  to  the  vast  territory  upon 
its  Western  borders.  This  increase  of  two  hundred  and  four  per  cent, 
in  the  population  of  an  area  larger  than  the  States  of  Massachusetts, 
Connecticut,  and  Rhode  Island  together,  has  occurred  during  ten  years, 
when  the  extraordinary  and  unprecedented  prosperity  of  those  Atlantic 


11 

States,  whence  emigration  to  the  West  has  been  generally  derived,  kept 
at  home  on  the  seaboard  a  population  of  about  seven  hundred  thousand 
persons,  who  must  otherwise,  at  the  rate  at  which  population  advanced 
in  those  States  during  the  next  preceding  decade  of  years,  have  become 
inhabitants  of  the  Mississippi  Valley,  and  for  the  most  part,  of  the 
northern  part  of  the  Valley.  [See  Table  D.]  This  increase  of  two 
hundred  and  four  per  cent,  has  occurred  in  the  accessible  section  of  Illi- 
nois, in  ten  years  of  financial  embarrassment  and  State  bankruptcy, 
most  repelling  to  immigrant  settlers ;  and  to  know  how  far  these  circum- 
stances have  depressed  the  growth  of  Northern  Illinois,  let  us  cross  the 
border  line  into  Wisconsin,  and  measure  there  the  effect  of  the  Lake, 
as  a  great  avenue,  upon  the  portion  of  Wisconsin  open  to  its  influence. 
If  we  draw  a  line  across  Wisconsin  from  Green  Bay  down  the 
Neenah  and  Wisconsin  rivers,  to  the  Mississippi,  we  shall  leave  south 
and  east  of  that  line  a  space  about  equal  to  the  Chicago  and  Dixon 
land  districts,  from  which,  as  well  as  from  the  rest  of  the  State,  in 
1840,  Black  Hawk  and  his  warriors  had  been  not  long  expelled.  South 
and  east  of  the  dividing  line  are  twenty  counties ;  north  and  west  of 
that  line  are  ten  counties,  not  yet  of  easy  access.  The  growth  of  the 
population  in  these  two  sections  is  as  follows : 

Wisconsin.          Square  miles.      Pop.  1840.       To  sq.  mile.     Pop.  1850.       To  tq.  mile.  Inc.  per  cent. 

20  Counties,    14,054      24,670       1.77     278,535      19,97     1,029 
10       "  39,870       6,275         .15      27,003         .67      330.3 


30  53,924     30,945         .57     305,538       5.66      888.6 

While  therefore  fourteen  thousand  miles  of  land  south  of  the  bound- 
ary between  Illinois  and  Wisconsin,  increased  its  population  280  per 
cent.,  the  same  quantity  of  similar  land  adjoining  it,  but  north  of  that 
boundary,  increased  its  population  more  than  one  thousand  per  cent. 
The  fear  of  the  State  debt  counterbalanced  and  outweighed  the  disad- 
vantages of  a  colder  climate,  and  the  greater  expense  of  clearing  wood- 
land, instead  of  simply  breaking  up  prairie.  The  manner  in  which  such 
a  tide  of  immigration  can  build  up  a  city  may  be  seen  in  Milwaukie, 
one  of  the  landing  places  for  passengers  by  steamers  round  the  Lakes 
from  Buffalo;  and  second  only  to  Chicago  among  the  ports  of  the 
upper  Lakes.  I  give  a  table  of  its  population  at  periods  of  four  years : 

Population  of  Milwaukie  from  1838  to  1850. 

1838   700  1846   9,655 

1842  2,700  1850  20,061 


12 

The  State  debt  of  Illinois  has  ceased  to  cause  alarm.  It  is  obvious 
that  the  taxes  provided  for  in  the  Constitution  of  the  State,  levied  on 
her  rapidly  increasing  property,  would  soon  be  sufficient  to  meet  her  lia- 
bilities. But  it  is  certain  that  the  opening  of  her  great  system  of  rail- 
roads -will  accelerate  the  increased  valuation  of  her  property  by  many 
millions  annually,  while  her  share  of  the  gross  revenue  of  the  Central 
Road  will  enable  her  soon  after  that  road  is  opened,  to  begin  rapidly  to 
extinguish  her  debt.  This  obstacle  being  no  longer  formidable,  the  cen- 
tral and  southern  parts  of  Illinois  are  now  ready  for  the  full  develop- 
ment of  their  natural  advantages.  The  remainder  of  the  State,  with  a 
warmer  climate  than  that  which  already  trebles  its  numbers  in  ten  years, 
lessening  the  expense  of  shelter,  fuel  and  clothing,  has  also  a  soil  tillable 
with  less  labor,  and  yielding  larger  harvests,  and,  underlying  many 
thousand  miles  of  its  area,  one  of  the  largest  coal  beds  in  the  world, 
not  too  far  from  the  surface,  and  in  many  parts  of  excellent  quality.  I 
say  nothing  of  the  metallic  minerals  of  Northwestern  or  Southern  Illinois, 
not  because  I  undervalue  them,  but  because  I  cannot  extend  this  commu- 
nication to  do  justice  to  their  merits  ;  and  because  in  land  for  agricultural 
purposes  alone,  Illinois  has  wealth  enough  for  an  empire.  Open  a  vent 
for  her  products,  and  her  central  and  southern  lands  will  be  sought  for 
as  eagerly  as  those  have  been  which  already  open  on  Lake  Michigan. 
Difficult  of  access  as  are  most  of  her  lands,  now  remaining  unsold,  they 
are  still  sought  for  in  much  larger  quantities  than  those  of  any  other 
new  State.  The  public  land  sold  in  the  seven  Northwestern  States  dur- 
ing the  year  ending  June  30th,  1850,  before  the  projection  of  the  Cen- 
tral Eailroad  began  to  influence  sales  in,  Illinois,  was  distributed  as  fol- 
lows : 

Sales  of  land  in  the  seven  Northwestern  States  for  the  year  ending 
June  30th,  1850,  according  to  the  Report  of  the  Secretary  of  the  In- 
terior, of  the  3d  of  December,  1850. 

Ohio,      -       34,677.25  acres.  Michigan,      -      48,675.03  acres. 

Indiana,-     120,998.93     "  Wisconsin,     -     162,098.87     " 

Illinois,  -     275,119.48    "  Iowa,  -    112,832.75     " 

Missouri,        -    227,000.89     " 

430,795.66    "  

550,607.54    " 

It  will  be  seen  from  this  table  that  more  land  is  sold  in  proportion  to 
their  area  in  the  three  older  States  of  Ohio,  Indiana  and  Illinois,  than 
in  the  four  younger  Northwestern  States  ;  and  almost  six  times  as  much 


13 

in  proportion  to  the  land  remaining  unsold.  Almost  two- thirds  of  the 
sales  in  the  three  older  States  were  in  Illinois ;  and  as  this  was  the  case 
before  the  passage  of  the  law  donating  lands  to  the  Central  Railroad, 
September,  1850,  it  will  be  readily  supposed  that  since  that  date  the  sales 
in  that  State  have  been  much  more  rapid.  Indeed,  in  a  single  district  in 
Illinois,  in  which  the  sales  for  the  year  ending  June  30th,  1850,  were 
18,528.42  acres,  in  the  quarter  ending  June  30th,  1851,  they  were  43,661, 
or  nine  and  a  half  times  as  much  in  proportion  to  the  time  as  before  the 
act  of  donation.  This  has  happened  while  the  land  within  fifteen  miles 
of  the  railroad  is  reserved  from  sale.  I  have  not  yet  obtained  returns 
from  all  the  districts,  so  that  I  am  unable  to  make  the  comparison  for 
the  whole  State. 

It  may  be  interesting  to  inquire  how  the  density  of  population,  and 
sales  of  land,  of  different  parts  of  the  State,  compare  with  each  other, 
in  order  to  judge  how  far  these  facts  furnish  evidence  of  the  comparative 
value  of  the  Company's  lands.  It  must  be  borne  in  mind  that  these 
lands  are  situated  mostly  in  the  three  districts  of  Dixon,  Danville  and 
Vandalia,  and  that  these  districts,  being  the  least  accessible  in  the  State, 
have  been,  of  course,  the  last  to  be  settled.  Railroad  communication 
has  not  yet  reached  an  acre  of  land  in  either  of  these  districts.  If  there- 
fore the  lands  are  rapidly  taken  up,  and  settlers  are  pouring  into  these 
districts,  it  is  because  of  the  intrinsic  fertility  of  the  soil,  and  the  con- 
fidence, growing  every  day  stronger,  that  communications  •  will  soon  be 
opened. 

Illinois  is  divided  into  ten  land  districts.  Of  these,  two,  Chicago  and 
Quincy,  the  former  lying  on  Lake  Michigan,  and  including  the  principal 
railroad,  and  the  canal  of  the  State,  the  latter  lying  between  the  Mis- 
sissippi and  Illinois  rivers,  with  almost  every  township  in  it  within  thirty 
miles  of  steamboat  navigation,  have,  in  the  aggregate,  more  than  eight 
millions  of  acres  of  land,  of  which  one-tenth  remains  unsold.  When  it 
is  considered  that  the  lands  unsold  in  these  two  districts  are  not  quite 
sufficient  to  furnish  farms,  of  the  average  Illinois  size,  for  one  year's  in- 
crease of  their  population,  it  is  plain  that,  in  estimating  the  unsold  lands 
which  are  to  come  into  competition  with  those  of  the  Company,  we  may 
omit  the  Chicago  and  Quincy  districts  entirely,  without  materially  affect- 
ing the  result.  The  three  districts  which  include  most  of  the  Company's 
land,  Dixon,  Danville  and  Vandalia,  have  thirteen  million  eight  hundred 
thousand  acres  of  land,  of  which  about  one-half  is  unsold  ;  while  the  re- 
maining five  districts  have  thirteen  million  four  hundred  thousand  acres, 
of  which  about  one-fourth  part  remains  unsold. 


14 

The  comparative  density  of  the  population  of  these  sections,  and  their 
increase,  with  the  number  of  acres  in  each,  will  appear  in  the  following 
tables. 

DISTRIBUTION   AND    PROGRESS    OF   THE    POPULATION   OF  ILLINOIS,    CON- 
SIDERED   BY   LAND  DISTRICTS,  FROM  1840  TO  1850. 

Districts.      Sq.  miles.  Acres.  Pop.  1840.     Tosq.m.      Pop.  1850.  Tosq.m. 

Quincy,      7,073     4,526,636.26      87,448     12.36     154,635    ^21.9 
Chicago,     5,777     3,697,068.60      48,416       8.38     160,500      27.8 

12,850     8,223,704.86     136,864     10.65     315,135    24.51 


Dixon, 

8,349 

5 

,343,471 

.73 

35,633 

4. 

26 

96,370 

11. 

56 

Danville, 

7,705 

4 

,931,334 

.79 

27,932 

3. 

62 

55 

,093 

7. 

15 

Vandalia, 

5,516 

3 

,530,401 

.00 

22,632 

4. 

10 

36 

,775 

6. 

G7 

21,570   13,805,207.52      86,197      4.00     188,238      8.72 
Fiveother,20,985   13,410,287.62     253,122    12.00     352,011    16.76 


Total,    55,405  35,439,200.00     476,183  8.59     855,384    15.44 

RECAPITULATION. 

Pop.  1850.       In.pr.ct.  Pop.  1860.    Atpr.ct.  Tosq.m. 

Quincy  and  Chicago,     -       315,135     130.26  724,810     130       56.4 

Dixon,  Danville  and  Vand.,  188,238     118.38  414,123     120        19.2 

Five  other, 352,011      39.07  492,815      40       23.4 


Total  of  Illinois,  855,384      79.63  1,631,748     90        29.4 

This  table  shows  that  the  districts  in  which  the  land  is  mostly  sold  have 
a  density  of  population  (24.51)  almost  three  times  as  great  as  those  in 
which  the  land  is  less  than  half  sold  (8.72)  ;  but  that  these  thinly  set- 
tled districts,  with  a  population  of  about  half  the  density  of  the  other  five 
districts,  (16.76,)  are  increasing  three  times  as  rapidly;  and,  what  is 
still  more  extraordinary,  almost  as  fast  as  those  two  districts  which  enjoy 
the  benefit  of  the  steamers  round  the  Lakes  and  on  the  Mississippi,  and 
Illinois,  of  the  Canal,  the  Michigan  Central,  and  Chicago  and  Galena 
Railroads.  The  table  gives  the  population  and  the  density  at  which 
each  division  would  arrive  in  1860,  at  the  same  rate  of  progress,  in 
round  numbers,  as  for  the  last  ten  years.  But  it  is  not  reasonabla 
to  suppose  that  the  same  rate  will  continue  in  the  two  districts  which  in 
1853  will  be  as  populous  as  Indiana.  Their  land  sells  at  high  prices 
already,  and  the  opening  of  the  new  channels  may  divert  emigration 


15 

which  would  otherwise  have  settled  there.  An  addition  of  two-thirds 
their  present  numbers  to  these  two  districts  is  quite  as  much  as  can  safely 
be  calculated  on,  while  the  thinly  settled  districts  may  be  expected  to, 
at  least,  double  their  rate  of  progress,  from  the  influence  of  the  railroad. 
As  the  other  five  districts  will  all  be  greatly  benefited  by  their  connection 
with  the  road,  it  is  not  too  much  to  expect  that  they  also  will  double 
their  rate,  and  increase,  say  eighty  per  cent.,  in  the  next  ten  years. 

Proceeding  on  these  data,  we  shall  have  the  following  estimate  of  the 
population  of  Illinois  for  1860  : — 

Districts.  Rate  of  Inc.      Pop.  1860.         To  sq.  mile. 

Quincy  and  Chicago,  66§         525,225         40.87 

Dixon,  Danville  and  Vandalia,         -      240  640,009         29.67 

Other  five, 80          633,620        30.2 


Total  of  Illinois,  110.4        1,798,854       32.47 

Suppose  this  estimate  to  be  realized,  and  these  three  districts  of 
Dixon,  Danville  and  Vandalia,  will  offer  still  stronger  inducements  to  the 
emigrant  than  any  other  portion  of  the  West.  They  would  still  have  a 
population  less  dense  than  the  average  of  the  State  of  Illinois,  but  not 
less  fertile,  nor  less  accessible.  Land  would  still  be  cheaper  in  Illinois 
than  in  Ohio,  or  in  Indiana,  because  the  settlement  would  still  be  much  less 
dense  than  in  those  two  States.  Ohio  increasing  at  thirty  per  cent,  will 
have  64.47  to  the  square  mile  in  1860.  Indiana,  if  she  increases  at 
forty-five  per  cent,  only,  and  there  are  obvious  reasons  why  the  rate 
should  be  greater,  will  have  42.47  to  the  square  mile :  Illinois  only 
32.47.  The  older  States  east  of  Illinois,  including  Ohio  and  Indiana,  are 
therefore  full,  and  emigrants  will  pass  through  them,  and  by  them,  to 
Illinois,  to  land  which  is  both  cheaper  and  better,  for  the  same  reasons 
that  they  have  done  so  heretofore. 

But,  it  may  be  asked,  will  not  a  larger  portion  of  the  additional  popu- 
lation coming  into  the  valley  of  the  Mississippi,  diverge  into  the  new 
States,  and  so  be  drawn  off  from  Illinois  ? 

Certainly  not  to  the  inaccessible  portions  of  those  States  ;  because  a 
bushel  of  corn  costing  six  cents,  which  can  be  carried  for  thirty  cents  to 
a  market  where  it  will  sell  for  thirty-six  cents,  is  not  worth  so  much  as  a 
bushel  of  corn  costing  twenty  cents,  which  can  be  carried  for  ten  cents 
to  the  same  market,  and  sold  for  the  same  price  of  thirty-six  cents.  A 
saving  of  twenty  cents  per  bushel  on  the  transportation  of  your  corn 
is  the  saving  of  ten  dollars  on  the  crop  of  an  acre,  reckoned  at  fifty 


16 

bushels  ;  and  this  sum  is  twenty  per  cent,  interest  on  a  first  cost  of  fifty 
dollars  per  acre.  It  will  be  better  economy,  therefore,  taking  the  article 
of  corn  as  a  criterion,  to  buy  land  in  the  south  part  of  the  Danville  district, 
at  fifty  dollars  the  acre,  when  the  price,  by  competition  for  it,  shall  have 
been  raised  so  high,  and  you  have  a  double  track  railroad  within  twelve 
miles  of  your  farm,  than  it  would  have  been  to  buy  the  same  land,  at  a 
dollar  and  a  quarter  per  acre,  when  there  was  no  practicable  outlet  for 
your  produce. 

But  will  not  railroads  be  built  opening  up  these  vast  tracts  of  unoc- 
cupied land,  so  as  to  bring  them  into  the  market  ?  Doubtless  to  some 
extent,  but  in  a  very  limited  proportion  to  the  whole  surface.  It  is  a 
much  more  promising  enterprise  to  build  railroads  through  regions 
having  already  from  twenty  to  fifty  inhabitants  to  the  square  mile,  where 
the  way  travel  is  to  be  depended  upon,  than  to  make  your  road  through 
uninhabited  wastes,  and  wait  for  population  and  business  to  follow  it. 
If,  however,  the  through  travel  of  a  long  route  is  thought  a  more  desir- 
able object,  there  is  no  new  route  connecting  the  Lakes  with  the  Gulf 
of  Mexico,  or  the  northeastern  States  with  the  western,  or  southwest- 
ern, that  will  run  through  Northern  Michigan,  or  Wisconsin,  or  Iowa, 
or  Missouri.  The  railroads  built  in  these  States,  then,  for  the  next 
ten  or  fifteen  years,  will  be  for  the  local  business  and  travel  of  sections 
where  business  and  population  are  already  collected  ;  gradually,  of 
course,  extending  their  sphere  of  action  as  population  advances,  but  not 
rushing  suddenly  beyond  it. 

In  these  accessible  sections  of  the  four  States  spoken  of,  railroads 
will  be  built  as  they  ought  to  be,  because  the  population  and  business 
either  are,  or  very  soon  will  be,  sufficient  to  support  railroads  profit- 
ably. But  these  accessible  sections  do  not  now,  and  will  not  for  twenty 
years  at  least,  if  ever,  offer  the  inducement  of  cheaper  land  than  Illi- 
nois, especially  the  Dixon,  Danville,  and  Vandalia  districts. 

We  shall  the  better  realize  the  certainty  of  these  views,  if  we  divide 
each  of  the  four  younger  northwestern  States  into  two  portions,  the 
smaller  portion  in  each  State  that  of  convenient  access  and  compara- 
tively dense  population ;  the  larger  portion  that  at  a  distance  from  the 
great  channels  of  communication,  and  as  yet  but  very  sparsely  settled. 
The  contrast  is  very  striking,  and  deserves  to  be  carefully  studied  by 
those  investigating  the  probabilities  of  Western  railroad  enterprises. 
The  State  of  Michigan  is  first  to  be  considered,  because  it  is  nearest  to 
the  dense  masses  of  population  in  the  northeast,  and  to  the  Atlantic 
ports,  through  which  emigrants  arrive,  in  passing  from  the  old  world 


17 

to  cheap  land  at  the  west.  In  the  southeastern  part  of  the  State  is  the 
Key  to  the  intercourse  between  the  basin  of  the  three  upper  Lakes, 
and  that  of  the  lower  Lakes  and  the  St.  Lawrence  ;  d,s  well  as  through 
these  to  the  Mississippi,  on  the  one  hand,  and  the  northeastern  hive 
upon  the  other.  The  great  current  of  emigration,  which  builds  up 
cities  and  States,  passes  ^hrough  this  section  at  Detroit.  The  marked 
points  along  the  line  of  tnis  current  will  aid  us  to  measure  its  influence. 
They  are,  with  their  population  in  1840  and  1850,  as  follows  : 

1840.  1850. 

New  York,     -    -    -     312,712  515,394 

Buffalo,          -    -    -      18,213  40,266 

Detroit,    .---         9,102  21,057 

Chicago,  4,479  28,269 

St.  Louis,     -    -    -       16,409  82,744 

From  Detroit,  the  Michigan  Central  Railroad  extends  to  the  west, 
and  if  we  take  the  first  four  counties  on  this  road,  with  the  first  three 
south,  and  the  first  two  north  of  them,  we  have  together  nine  counties, 
with  much  more  than  half  the  population  of  the  State.  These  counties, 
so  favorably  situated  to  receive  emigrants,  and  to  forward  produce,  will 
of  course  continue  to  prosper  and  increase  ;  but  those  in  search  of  cheap 
lands  will  not  stop  here,  because  the  density  of  settlement,  and  the  price 
of  land,  are  both  much  higher  than  in  Illinois,  and  will  be  so  for  the  next 
twenty  years.  In  the  distant  part  of  the  State,  cheap  land  can  be  found, 
but  not  more  eligible  than  that  of  Illinois. 

The  next  State  on  the  highway  of  the  Lakes,  after  passing  Michigan, 
is  Wisconsin  ;  the  division  of  whose  area  into  two  parts,  the  one  having 
a  population  about  thirty  times  as  dense  as  the  other,  I  have  already 
noticed.  The  denser  portion  has  also  increased  three  times  as  rapidly  as 
the  remainder,  and  is  just  beginning  to  enjoy  the  advantages  of  railroad 
communication.  It  has  more  than  twice  the  average  density  of  population 
(19.97)  belonging  to  the  Dixon,  Danville  and  Vandalia  districts,  (8.72,) 
and  will  certainly  continue  for  more  than  twenty  years  more  densely 
settled,  and  with  land  at  higher  prices,  than  those  three  districts  of  Il- 
linois. 

If  we  cross  Illinois  by  the  canal,  and  the  Illinois  river,  a  cheap  and 
convenient  navigation,  we  next  arrive  at  Missouri,  a  State  centrally 
situated,  and  commanding  a  large  share  of  western  trade.  She  naturally 
receives  the  vast  multitudes  of  emigrants  from  Europe  arriving  at  New 
Orleans,  and  has  her  choice  of  avenues  to  the  markets  of  the  world,  down 
the  Mississippi  by  magnificent  and  numerous  steamboats  ;  or,  across  the 
3 


18 

country  to  the  east,  by  the  various  channels  recently  opened,  or  yet  t0 
be  completed.  The  longest  watercourse  in  the  world,  the  Missouri, 
hurrying  its  turbid  tribute  from  the  Rocky  Mountains  to  the  Gulf  of 
Mexico,  passes  transversely  from  the  northwestern  angle  of  the  State, 
directly  through  its  centre.  Upon  both  sides  of  this  river,  from  the 
mouth  of  the  Nodaway  to  the  Mississippi,  there  are  twenty-three  coun- 
ties, having  less  than  a  sixth  of  the  surface,  but  nearly  half  the  popula- 
tion of  the  State.  These  twenty-three  counties  have  31.76  inhabitants 
to  the  square  mile,  and  will  be  more  densely  peopled  than  the  three  dis- 
tricts with  which  I  compare  them,  till  long  after  those  districts  have  ac- 
quired a  density  greater  than  that  of  Ohio. 

The  State  of  Iowa  remains  to  be  considered.  She  is  still  further  than 
the  rest  from  the  sources  of  emigration  and  from  available  markets.  Eigh- 
teen counties  in  the  southeastern  part  of  this  State,  with  less  than  a 
fifth  of  her  territory,  have  a  population  twelve  times  as  dense  as  the  re- 
mainder, increasing  and  likely  to  increase  with  great  rapidity.  The 
lands  of  these  eighteen  counties  are,  and  for  many  years  will  be,  more 
densely  settled  than  those  of  the  three  districts  in  question. 

These  particulars  appear  more  distinctly  in  the  following  table,  in 
which  I  have  first  divided  the  population  of  each  State  between  the 
densely  and  the  sparsely  settled  portions  of  territory,  and  showing  the 
inhabitants  to  each  square  mile  in  each  portion  ;  and  have  then  shown 
the  density  of  population,  at  a  probable  rate  of  increase  in  1860,  sup- 
posing the  increase  to  be  twice  as  rapid  in  the  sparsely  settled  as  in  the 
densely  settled  counties. 

Division  of  population  between  the  more  accessible  and  the  less  acces- 
sible portions  of  the  four  younger  northwestern  States  for  1850;  and 
for  1860,  at  certain  assumed  rates  of  increase. 

Sq.  miles.     To  sq.  mile.      In.  pr.  ct.    Sq.  mile  in  1860. 

Michigan,  9  counties  4,420  49.21  50  73.82 

"  23  "  51,823  3.56  100  7.12 

Wisconsin,  20  «  14,054  19.97  200  59.91 

"  10  «  39,870  .67  400  3.35 

Missouri,  23  "  10,350  31.76  50  47.64 

"  '  78  "  57,030  6.20  100  12.40 

Iowa,  18  «  9,000  14.80  125  33.30 

"  33  «  41,914  1.17  250  4.09 

The  denser  counties  of  these  States  will  hold  their  land  much  higher 
in  1860  than  the  Dixon,  Danville  and  Vandalia  districts  in  Illinois. 
Into  the  sparsely  settled  counties,  railroads  can  hardly  begin  to  run  pro- 


19 

fitably  until  after  1860.  Illinois  will  continue  to  offer  the  largest  supply 
of  comparatively  cheap,  accessible,  fertile,  and  in  all  respects  eligible 
land,  until  long  after  the  prices  of  land  along  the  line  of  her  great  rail- 
road have  risen  beyond  the  average,  at  the  official  valuation,  of  the  lands 
of  Ohio,  at  the  present  day. 

The  aggregates  of  these  dense  portions  together,  and  of  the  sparse 
regions,  are  as  follows : 

Portions  dense  enough  to  support  Railroads. 


States. 

Sq.  Miles. 

Pop.  in  1850. 

Pop.  in  1860. 

Inc.  in  10  years 

Michigan, 

4,420 

217,529 

326,293 

50 

Wisconsin, 

14,054 

278,535 

835,605 

200 

Missouri, 

10,350 

328,695 

493,042 

50 

Iowa, 

9,000 

133,165 

299,621 

125 

Michigan, 

51,823 

184,512 

369,024 

Wisconsin, 

39,870 

27,003 

135,015 

Missouri, 

57,030 

353,749 

707,498 

Iowa, 

41,914 

59,082 

206,787 

36,824          959,924       1,954,561  104 

Per  square  mile  in  1850,  25.32.     In  1860,  51.15. 

Portions  too  sparsely  setttled  to  support  Railroads. 

100 
400 
100 
250 

190,637          624,346        1,418,324  127 

Per  square  mile  in  1850,  3.27.     In  1860,  7.44. 

Having  gone  over  all  the  Northwestern  States  separately,  I  will  now 
recapitulate,  and  give  the  total  for  each  State,  with  the  population  for 
1860,  at  the  rate  of  increase  assumed. 

Population  of  the  Northwestern  States  for  1860,  at  the  rates  of  increase 
assumed  in  the  foregoing  remarks  with  the  number  per  square  mile. 

States.  Sq.  miles.      Pop.  in  1850.    Pr.  sq.  m.    Pop.  in  1860.     Pr.  sq.m.      In.pr.ct. 

Ohio,  39,964    1,981,940    49.59     2,576,522     64.47      30.0 

Indiana,        33,809        990,258     29.29     1,435,874    42.47       45.0 
Illinois,         55,405        855,384    15.45     1,798,854     32.47    110.4 

129,178     3,827,582    29.63     5,811,250    44.99      51.8 


Michigan, 

56,243 

402,041 

7.15 

695,317 

12.36 

72.94 

Wisconsin, 

53,924 

305,538 

5.65 

970,620 

18.00 

220.95 

Missouri, 

67,380 

682,044 

10.12 

1,200,540 

17.82 

76.02 

Iowa, 

50,914 

192,247 

3.77 

506,408 

9.94 

163.42 

228,461    1,581,870      6.92    3,372,885    14.76      113.2 


20 


RECAPITULATION. 

Pop.  in  1850.    Pr.  sq. m.      Pop.i?il8<iQ.  Pr.sq.m.  In.pr.ct. 

3  older  States,    I           3,827,582     29.63     5.811,250  44.99      51.8 

4  newer    "                    1,581,870      6.92     3,372,885  14.76     113.2 


7  Northwestern,  5,409,452    11.82     9,184,135     20.07     69.78 

This  table  does  not  afford  any  reason  to  apprehend  that  the  northwest 
will  be  over-stocked  with  population,  so  that  immigration  will  be  checked 
for  want  of  space  in  which  to  expand  itself.  These  seven  States,  if 
they  advance  as  supposed  above,  will  still  fall  short  of  the  density  of  the 
great  States  of  Virginia,  the  Carolinas,  Kentucky  and  Tennessee,  which 
with  216,532  square  miles  of  territory  have  4,961,542  inhabitants,  or 
an  average  of  22.91  to  the  square  mile.  The  whole  economy  of  culti- 
vation in  the  northwest  is  so  different  from  that  of  these  States,  that  it 
will  support  from  three  times  to  four  times  the  population,  before  the 
symptoms  of  too  crowded  a  condition  of  agricultural  labor  will  manifest 
themselves  as  they  do  in  the  older  southern  States.  The  northwest- 
ern States  have  also  improved  their  means  of  communication  already, 
much  more  extensively  than  the  older  southern  States.  In  addition  to 
about  a  thousand  miles  of  canals  now  in  operation,  they  have  in  opera- 
tion, and  in  the  course  of  construction  more  than  five  thousand  miles  of 
railroads.  The  five  southern  States  named  have  about  twenty-six  hun- 
dred miles.  Where  the  best  system  of  internal  improvements  has  been 
carried  out,  there  the  rate  of  increase  has  not  been  checked  by  the  den- 
sity of  population,  but  on  the  contrary,  sections  that  seemed  to  be  almost 
stationary  have  advanced  rapidly  since  the  opening  of  their  railroads. 
If  we  omit  the  State  of  Maine,  which  has  but  one  mile  of  railroad  to  135 
square  miles  of  her  surface,  while  the  rest  of  New  England  has  one 
mile  of  railroad  to  eleven  miles  of  surface,  we  shall  find  the  other  five 
New  England  States,  which  increased  but  11.43  percent,  from  1830  to 
1840,  increasing  23.75  per  cent,  from  1840  to  1850,  or  twice  as  rapidly. 
This  increase  is  most  marked  in  the  three  States  of  Massachusetts,  Con- 
necticut and  Rhode  Island ;  these  three  States,  averaging  more  than 
one  hundred  inhabitants  to  the  square  mile,  but  having  one  mile  of  rail- 
road to  every  seven  and  a  half  square  miles  of  surface.  The  proportion 
in  England  and  Wales  is  about  one  mile  of  railroad  to  ten  miles  of 
surface.  No  other  part  of  the  United  States  is  so  well  supplied  with 
railroad  facilities  as  the  northeastern  section  of  Massachusetts,  includ- 
ing the  counties  of  Essex,  Middlesex,  Suffolk  and  Norfolk.  These  four 
counties  have  one  mile  of  railroad  to  about  four  miles  of  surface. 


21 

They  have  considerably  more  than  three  hundred  inhabitants  to  the 
square  mile,  a  denser  population  than  that  of  England  and  Wales,  not- 
withstanding which  they  have  gained  in  the  last  ten  years  more  than 
forty-seven  per  cent,  in  population,  advancing  from  350,511  in  1840  to 
516,212  in  1850,  and  having  now  more  than  half  the  population  of  the 
State. 

This  remarkable  result  is  due,  it  must  be  confessed,  to  the  decided 
tendency  of  railroad  facilities  to  concentrate  business  and  population  in 
towns  and  cities  at  the  most  convenient  points.  The  tract  through  which 
the  Illinois  Central  Railroad  is  to  pass  is  mostly  destitute  of  cities  and 
towns,  but  these  must  be  built  up  at  intervals,  along  the  new  channels 
of  intercourse  which  we  are  about  to  open,  as  Chicago,  Milwaukie,  and 
so  many  other  centres  of  distribution  and  exchange  have  been  already 
on  the  Lake  and  on  the  rivers.  As  the  population  grows  denser  wealth 
will  accumulate,  not  in  the  same  proportion  to  population  certainly  as  at 
the  head-quarters  of  American  railroads, — the  State  of  Massachusetts, 
whose  wealth  has  doubled  in  the  last  ten  years, — but  rapidly  enough  to 
improve  constantly  the  circumstances  of  the  inhabitants,  and  of  course 
to  raise  the  value  of  the  land  in  a  greater  ratio  than  the  increase  of 
numbers.  I  say  it  is  not  to  be  expected  that  individual  wealth  should 
accumulate  as  rapidly  in  Illinois,  as  it  has  done  for  the  last  ten  years  in 
Massachusetts  ;  the  last  ten  years  having  been  precisely  the  period  of 
the  greatest  prosperity  and  most  rapid  progress  that  Massachusetts  has 
ever  known.  Yet  in  that  portion  of  Illinois  most  easily  accessible  from 
Lake  Michigan,  and  on  the  line  of.  the  railroad  to  Galena,  not  only  has 
population  quadrupled  in  the  last  ten  years,  but  the  wealth  was  six  times 
as  great  in  1849,  as  it  was  nine  years  before  ;  so  that  the  shares  of  the 
individual  inhabitants  increased  faster  than  even  in  Massachusetts,  where 
profits  are  annually  re-invested  from  the  accumulated  capital  of  more 
than  two  hundred  years. 

In  Massachusetts  the  valuation  of  1840  was  a  little  less  than  three 
hundred  millions  of  dollars,  or  more  than  four  hundred  dollars  per  head. 
In  1850  it  was  a  little  less  than  six  hundred  millions,  or  a  fraction  above 
six  hundred  dollars  per  head  ;  so  that  each  man's  share  had  increased 
fifty  per  cent,  in  ten  years,  a  prosperity  not  unenviable.  In  the  thirteen 
northern  counties  of  Illinois,  as  may  be  seen  in  Table  E,  the  aggregate 
wealth  which  in  1840  was  $3,630,040  had  risen  to  $21,942,239  in 
1849,  or  from  $77.25  per  head  to  $134.27  per  head.  The  same  rate 
of  increase  per  head  would  make  each  individual's  share  exceed  two  hun- 
dred and  sixty  dollars  in  1860 ;  and  if  we  suppose  the  population  of 


22 

these  counties  to  increase  only  two-thirds  in  the  next  ten  years,  about 
three  hundred  thousand  inhabitants  would  possess  about  seventy-eight 
millions  of  dollars'  worth  of  property.  This  amount  gives  $16.91  per 
acre  for  the  whole  area  of  these  thirteen  counties,  and  if  we  allow  the 
land  to  constitute  two-thirds  of  the  valuation,  which  is  much  less  than  its 
true  proportion,  it  gives  more  than  ten  dollars  per  acre  as  the  price  of 
land. 

The  experience  of  Illinois  shows  therefore,  that  as  her  population  be- 
comes more  dense,  their  wealth  has  increased  in  a  ratio  quite  sufficient  for 
the  purpose  of  the  present  examination.  Is  there  any  reason  to  fear  that 
her  lands  will  offer  fewer  inducements  to  emigrants  in  future,  or  that 
less  success  will  attend  those  who  occupy  them  ?  It  is  obvious  that  the 
answer  to  this  question  depends  much  on  determining  whether  the  pro- 
duce of  these  lands  can  be  profitably  taken  to  market,  and  whether  the 
world  furnishes  markets  sufficient  to  take  off  the  immense  surplus  they 
are  to  yield. 

Corn  was  carried  during  the  summer  from  a  point  several  miles  above 
the  mouth  of  the  Illinois  river  down  to  the  Illinois,  thence  up  that  river 
to  the  canal,  thence  to  Chicago,  and  thence  to  New  York,  and  there 
sold  at  a  profit.  Corn  was  not  low  in  Illinois  last  summer,  but  in  New 
York  it  was  considerably  lower  than  the  average  of  the  last  four  years. 
Corn  will  go  to  market  cheaper  from  the  lands  in  the  Danville  district 
on  the  line  of  the  Chicago  branch  of  the  Central  Road,  than  from  the 
point  of  shipment  on  the  Mississippi  first  referred  to.  Corn  is  so  cheap 
and  bulky  that  all  other  agricultural  produce  may  be  carried  much  fur- 
ther on  the  railroad  without  too  great  an  addition  to  its  price.  All 
produce  for  which  a  market  can  be  found  at  the  seaboard  will  bear  the 
cost  of  transportation  from  Illinois. 

Nor  need  we  be  alarmed  at  the  vast  amounts  of  produce  which  these 
unsettled  tracts  are  capable  of  yielding.  The  Northwest  never  received 
so  great  an  accession  to  its  population  in  any  equal  period  as  in  the  last 
five  years  ;  the  emigration  from  foreign  countries,  most  of  which  passes 
to  the  Northwest,  having  risen  to  299,610  in  1849,  and  to  315,333  in 
1850,  instead  of  less  than  fifty  thousand  a  year,  as  it  was  formerly.  Yet 
with  this  unparalleled  increase  of  laborers  cultivating  the  richest  soil  of 
the  world,  with  the  new  avenues  to  market  that  have  been  opened  during 
that  time,  all  pouring  to  the  seaboard  the  surplus  of  a  succession  of 
bountiful  harvests,  in  quantities  unheard  of  before,  and  at  much  lower 
freights  than  before,  the  supply  has  not  kept  pace  with  the  demand,  as 
is  shown  by  the  fact  that  agricultural  products,  almost  without  exception, 


23 

have  borne  much  higher  prices  during  the  last  four  years  than  during 
the  four  next  preceding.  The  following  are  the  average  prices  of 
the  whole  quantities  of  some  of  the  principal  articles  exported  from 
the  United  States  during  the  two  periods. 

Flour,        1843-4-5  and  6         $4.79  184T-8-9-50       $5.77 

Wheat,          "      "  "        "  .96|  "      "  "    "          1.29$ 

Corn,  "     "  "        "  .55  "     "  «   "  .71^ 

The  prices  of  pork  and  other  animal  products  differ  also  in  about 
the  same  proportion.  The  difference  extends  also  to  southern  products, 
so  that  labor  will  not  be  diverted  at  the  South  from  their  peculiar  staples, 
to  wheat,  corn,  pork,  and  the  articles  which  now  employ  northwestern 
labor.  The  prices  were, 

Cotton,  1843-4-5-6  cts.  6.8728  1847-8-9-50  cts.  8.417 
Rice,  "  "  «  "  $17.66  "  "  "  "  $22.24 

Tobacco,         "     "  "  "      52.15  "      "  "    "       59.47 

Stimulated  by  this  rise  of  prices,  the  exports  of  the  last  four  years 
exceeded  those  of  the  four  years  previous,  in  vegetable  food  and  the 
products  of  animals  alone,  by  about  one  hundred  millions  of  dollars  in  the 
total. 

The  animal  products  exported  from  1843  to  1846  inclusive  were 
valued  at  $24,153,331 

And  the  vegetable  food  at  47,335,438 

Making  an  aggregate  of  -     »  -  $71,488,769 

But  during  the  period  from  1847  to  1850  inclu- 
sive, the  exports  of  animal  products  were  about 
doubled,  and  amounted  to  $47,354,655 

The  vegetable  food  was  more  than  doubled,  being      -         123,720,738 

$171,075,393 
Subtract  amount  in  previous  four  years,     -  71,488,769 

$99,586,624 

Reference  to  table  F  will  show  how  this  excess  is  divided  between  the 
different  years,  and  how  much  of  it  is  due  to  the  year  of  famine,  1847. 
It  will  be  seen  that  the  animal  products  exhibit  a  higher  average  since, 
than  during  that  year,  while  the  vegetable  food  averages  three  times 
what  it  was  in  1844  and  1845  before  the  rise  of  prices  commenced  in 
1846.  It  is  true  that  the  exports  of  vegetable  food  declined  in  amount 


24 

in  1850,  but  they  are  now  very  large,  and  likely  to  continue  so.  For 
instance,  the  exports  to  Great  Britain  and  Ireland  from  the  first  of  Sep- 
tember, 1850,  to  the  latter  part  of  August,  1851,  were, 

Of  flour,  -    1,532,263  bbls.       Wheat,  1,479,332  bush. 

Same  dates  year  previous,      453,085    "  "         461,276    " 


a  a 


Excess  of  the  present  year,  1,079,178    "  1,018,056    " 

More   than  one  million  of  barrels  of  flour  and  one  million  of  bushels  of 
wheat ;  against  which  offset  the  falling  off  of  corn. 

The  exports  of  the  South  increase  also,  which  is  an  important  element 
in  the  prosperity  of  the  Northwest ;  first  because  the  South,  while  her 
peculiar  staples  are  profitable,  will  not  compete  in  foreign  markets  with 
large  supplies  of  food,  which  she  could  easily  furnish  if  her  industry  were 
directed  to  that  object ;  second,  because  the  South,  in  years  of  prosper- 
ous export  of  her  staples,  consumes  vast  quantities  of  Northwestern 
products,  which  she  might  otherwise  raise  at  home.  The  export  of  her 
three  chief  articles  were, 

1843  to  1846.  1847  to  1849. 

Cotton,  -       -      -     $197,690,291  $253,795,725 

Tobacco.      -  28,996,814  30,548,438 

Rice,  ....  8,600,207  11,138,639 


$235,286,812  $295,482,802 

The  addition  of  another  year  to  the  last  total  would  make  the  aver- 
age annual  gain  much  more  marked,  as  the  quantity  of  cotton  was 
far  greater  in  Is51  than  in  1850,  and  the  price  for  the  fiscal  year  much 
higher  per  pound.  With  the  prospect  of  a  large  crop  for  the  next 
year's  exports,  the  price  is  still  nearly  thirty  per  cent,  higher  than  from 
1843  to  1846.  The  quantity  forwarded  to  Great  Britain,  to  the  latest 
dates  this  year,  was  -  -  1,405,000  bales 

To  same  date  last  year,       -  1,085,500     " 

Increase,  319,500  bales 

The  next  year's  export  will  show  a  large  increase  on  this  amount. 

That  all  these  products,  both  those  of  the  North  and  those  of  the 

South,  if  they  are  exported  in  greater  quantities   than    formeily  at 

higher  prices,  would  be  required  and  consumed  abroad  in  quantities  still 

more  rapidly  increased,  if  they  were  afforded  at  lower  prices  than  from 

1843  to  1846,  is  almost  too  obvious  to  be  stated ;  and  yet  it  is  equally 

obvious  that  the  prices  might  be  reduced  considerably  below  those  of  the 


25 

former  period  to  the  consumer,  and  yet  leave  a  much  larger  remuneration 
than  before  in  the  hands  of  the  original  producer,  because  of  the  saving 
of  so  large  a  part  of  the  addition  made  to  the  cost  of  the  article  in  the 
expense  of  transportation.  The  increased  power  of  consumption  of  the 
inhabitants  of  Great  Britain  is  also  well  ascertained,  and  seems  from  the 
latest  returns  to  be  steadily  advancing. 

The  demand  for  Northwestern  products  for  exportation,  is,  however, 
far  from  being  the  only  dependence  of  the  producer.  The  home  demand 
increases,  and  must  conjtinue  to  increase,  in  a  ratio  even  greater  than  the 
foreign  demand.  As  the  country  grows  richer^a  larger  proportion  of  its 
population  is  withdrawn  from  agricultural  pursuits,  to  be  employed  in 
manufactures  and  mining,  and  in  the  management  of  internal  exchanges 
and  transportation,  and  foreign  navigation  and  commerce.  All  these 
persons,  ceasing  to  grow  their  own  food,  and  consuming  freely,  since, 
taken  as  a  whole,  they  have  ample  means  to  purchase,  create  a  con- 
tinually expending  demand,  which  for  the  last  five  years  at  least,  has  not 
been  overtaken  by  the  supply.  This  progress  in  this  country  is  far 
beyond  that  of  any  other  part  of  the  world,  in  the  rapidity  with  which 
it  proceeds.  This  communication  would  extend  to  too  great  a  length, 
if  I  should  collect  all  the  elements  which  would  be  necessary  to  judge 
accurately  how  fast  this  change  goes  on.  But  for  the  present  purpose, 
and  with  a  view  to  contrast  the  multitudes  of  men  devoted  now  to  other 
than  agricultural  pursuits,  with  the  small  numbers  of  a  time  not  far 
distant,  let  us  compare  a  few  particulars  of  the  years  1830  and  1850. 

In  the  year  1830,  the  anthracite  coal  sent  to  market  from  the  mines 
of  Pennsylvania  was  less  than  one  hundred  and  seventy-five  thousand 
tons.  In  1850,  it  was  about  twenty  times  that  amount.  In  1830,  the 
iron  produced  in  the  United  States,  was  about  one  hundred  and  sixty- 
five  thousand  tons,  or  about  as  much  as  Great  Britain  produced  in  1800. 

In  1850,  the  United  States  produced  about  four  times  as  much  as  in 
1830,  or  about  the  same  quantity  that  Great  Britain  produced  in  1830. 
The  cotton  manufactures  in  the  United  States  consumed  in  1830,  forty- 
five  millions  of  pounds  of  the  raw  material ;  in  1850,  two  hundred  and 
seventy  millions  of  pounds,  or  six  times  as  great  a  quantity. 

The  instruments  of  transportation  compare  as  follows,  after  an  interval 

of  twenty  years  only : — 

1830.  1850. 

Miles  of  canal  in  operation,  -^       1,277  3,698 

"    of  railroad         "       -  73  8,879 

"    of    "       "     in  construction,     -          338  11,000 

4 


26 

1830.  1850. 

Tons  of  shipping,      -  -         ^,191,776     3,535,454 

"   of        "       built  in  the  year,     -      58,094        272,218 

Number  of  steamers  built  in  last  five  years,    196  965 

The  growth  of  cities  is  more  remarkable  in  this  connection  than  even 
the  facts  just  given.  In  1830  only  one-sixteenth  part  of  the  population 
of  the  United  States  -were  collected  in  cities,  having  more  than  ten 
thousand  inhabitants  in  each.  In  1840  about  one-thirteenth,  and  in 
1850  about  one-eighth  of  the  population  were  so  situated. 

The  number  of  persons  inhabiting  towns  of  more  than  ten  thousand 
inhabitants,  was  as  follows,  at  four  respective  dates. 

1820.  1830.  1840.  1850. 

570,010  878,300  1,329,937  2,809,251 

The  last  number  may  be  somewhat  increased  upon  the  publication  of  the 
census  returns,  as  it  is  possible  that  my  data  may  not  be  quite  complete 
upon  this  point.  It  will  be  perceived  from  the  figures  given  that  the 
tendency  of  the  population  to  congregate  in  cities  has  been,  as  might  be 
expected,  much  stronger  in  the  last  ten  years  than  in  any  previous  de- 
cade. The  cities  which  now  contain  2,809,251,  contained  in  1840, 
when  several  of  them  were  only  small  towns,  1,514,103,  inhabitants ;  so 
that  these  cities  have  increased,  in  ten  years,  eighty-five  and  a  half  per 
cent.  The  same  rate  of  increase,  for  the  next  ten  years,  will  carry  these 
cities  up  to  5,200,000  inhabitants,  to  which  number  must  be  added 
800,000  at  least,  for  about  fifty  towns  now  below  the  standard.  Six 
MILLIONS  of  people  in  cities,  in  1860,  and  at  least  FOUR  MILLIONS  more 
engaged  in  manufactures,  mining,  and  mechanic  arts,  navigation  and 
transportation,  will  consume  each,  on  an  average,  five  bushels  of  wheat, 
with  other  bread  stuffs  and  provisions  in  proportion,  all  to  be  grown 
where  they  can  be  obtained  cheapest,  reckoning  together  cost  of  growth, 
and  of  transportation.  Illinois  grows  these  products  as  cheaply  as  any 
spot  on  earth  already  ;  and  can  transport  them  as  cheaply  as  most  re- 
gions yielding  a  surplus  above  their  own  consumption,  as  soon  as  the 
avenue,  which  we  propose  to  open  for  her,  is  completed. 

These  ten  millions  of  inhabitants,  standing  in  the  place  of  less  than 
two  millions,  falling  within  the  same  categories  in  1830,  not  only  create 
a  market  for  all  the  agricultural  products  which  they  consume,  and 
thereby  hold  out  inducements  to  the  emigrant  to  take  up  the  rich  lands 
of  the  Northwest,  and  avail  himself  of  this  market ;  but  they  create 
also  another  and  an  annually  increasing  demand,  which  the  Northwest 
only  can  meet.  As  wealth  accumulates,  imported  comforts  and  luxuries 


27 

are  more  sought  for,  and  these  can  only  be  paid  for  by  the  exportation 
of  agricultural  products.  The  excess,  beyond  what  cotton,  rice,  and  to[ 
bacco  will  pay  for,  must  be  met  mostly  by  the  products  of  the  North- 
west. 

The  imports  of  the  year  1830  were  $70,876,920,  but  in  1850  they 
had  risen  to  $178,138,318.  This  increased  purchase  of  course  took  off 
increased  quantities  of  products  to  pay  for  it.  The  imports  in  the  four 
years  ending  with  1830  were  $313,363,339  ;  for  the  four  years  ending 
with  1850,  they  were  $627,519,323,  while  the  exports  for  four  years 
ending  in  1830  were  $300,797,692,  and  for  four  years  ending  in 
1850  they  were  $610,339,598.  The  imports  having  doubled  in  twenty 
years,  the  exports  have  doubled  also.  Has  the  whole  demand,  both  do- 
mestic and  foreign  taken  together,  been  sufficient  to  keep  up  the  prices 
of  the  surplus  products  of  the  Northwest,  as  compared  with  the  prices 
of  manufactured  and  imported  articles  which  the  farmer  purchases  with 
the  disposable  portion  of  his  crop  ?  The  answer  to  this  question  de- 
termines whether  the  inducements  to  settle  in  the  Northwest  are  gaining 
strength  ;  for  it  is  the  amount  which  his  surplus  will  purchase  that  de- 
termines the  question  whether  the  farmer  will  grow  rich  or  poor. 

If  we  compare  the  four  last  years  with  the  four  preceding,  we  shall 
find: 

1st.  That  goods  manufactured  in  the  Eastern  States  have  become 
much  cheaper. 

2d.  That  imported  articles  have  grown  cheaper. 

3d.  That  agricultural  products  command  much  higher  prices  than 
before. 

4th.  That  the  cost  of  transporting  agricultural  produce  from  the 
West  to  the  seaboard,  and  manufactured  and  imported  articles  from  the 
seaboard  to  the  West  has  been  materially  diminished,  and  is  likely  to  be 
still  more  so. 

Each  of  these  four  changes  is  of  vast  advantage  to  the  settlers  on 
the  public  lands,  and  their  combined  influence  has  caused  wealth  to  pour 
in  like  a  flood,  into  those  sections  of  the  Northwest  having  convenient 
access  to  the  markets  of  the  world.  Of  the  effect  of  this  tribute  of 
wealth  upon  the  accumulations  of  those  communities  who  receive  it,  I 
have  given  an  instance  in  Table  E,  showing  that  the  wealth  of  the  thir- 
teen northern  counties  of  Illinois  was  six  times  as  great  in  1849,  as  it 
had  been  nine  years  before,  in  1840. 

But  the  accumulation  of  the  wealth  of  the  settler  is  by  no  means  the 
true  measure  of  the  improvement  of  his  condition,  because  he  does  not 


28 

lay  up  all,  or  even  the  greater  part  of  what  he  gains.  If  his  ordinary 
income  is  doubled,  he  doubles  his  consumption  of  those  articles  of  neces- 
sity, convenience  or  luxury,  which  he  obtains  from  a  distance  ;  for,  of 
all  that  the  soil  about  him  yields,  he  consumed  to  the  full  extent  of  his 
inclination  before.  Let  us  form  a  more  distinct  idea  of  the  effect  on  his 
situation  of  the  four  changes  I  have  just  enumerated,  by  tracing  out 
their  operation  upon  some  of  the  exchangeable  commodities  which  he 
sells  and  which  he  buys. 

I  select  iron,  because  it  is  an  article  of  universal  use,  and  one,  the 
cheapness  of  which  is  more  truly  essential  to  the  progress  of  civiliza- 
tion than  that  of  any  other.  In  fact,  to  reduce  the  cost  of  iron  one-half 
would  be  to  make  a  stride  onward  in  all  the  conditions  of  well-being, 
than  which,  few  revolutions  in  the  history  of  the  world  have  been  more 
prodigious. 

To  investigate  the  case  of  one  kind  of  iron  is  quite  sufficient,  because 
this  may  serve  as  a  symbol  of  all  the  others,  which  are  all  affected  sub- 
stantially in  the  same  manner.  The  Northwest  is  likely  to  build  a 
thousand  miles  of  railroad,  and  to  require  a  hundred  thousand  tons  of 
rolled  bar  iron  annually  for  some  years  to  come.  As  the  cultivator  of 
Northwestern  lands  pays  for  this  iron  in  the  products  of  his  soil,  the 
question  for  the  Northwest  will  be,  how  much  flour,  wheat,  corn  or 
other  produce  will  purchase  the  quantity  of  iron  which  the  Northwest, 
at  the  lowest  prices,  would  advantageously  consume  ? 

The  price  of  rolled  bar  iron  at  Liverpool  has  for  months  past  averaged 
considerably  less  than  thirty  dollars :  but  as  this  price  has  undoubtedly 
been  too  low  to  yield  a  fair  return  on  the  labor  and  capital  employed  in 
producing  it,  I  will  suppose  the  price  for  some  time  to  come  to  average 
thirty  dollars,  including  port  charges  and  commissions.  The  cost  laid 
down  at  Detroit  will  be  nearly  as  follows : 

100,000     Tons  of  Rolled  Iron,  at 

$30     Per  ton  at  Liverpool,  will  equal 

$3,000,000  Cost  at  Liverpool ;  add 

500,000  Freight  to  New  York,  at  $5.00. 

90,000  Insurance  at  three  per  cent. 

900,000  Duties  at  thirty  per  cent. 

525,000  Freight  to  Detroit  at  $5.25. 

$5,015,000     Cost  at  Detroit,  or  $50.15  per  ton. 
This  is  to  be  paid  for,  say  in  flour,  which,  at  the  port  of  exportation,  has 


29 

averaged  for  the  last  four  years  $5.77j.  Call  this  sum  $5.75,  and 
deduct  one  dollar  for  freight  from  Detroit  to  New  York,  and  we  have 
$4.75,  realized  at  Detroit  for  a  barrel  of  flour.  At  these  prices  one 
hundred  thousand  tons  of  rails  would  cost  at  Detroit  1,055,989  barrels 
of  flour.  One  ton  of  iron  would  cost  ten  and  a  half  barrels  of  flour, 
to  the  Michigan  purchaser. 

Take  now  the  same  exchanges,  at  the  prices  ruling  from  1843  to  1846 
inclusive,  and  mark  the  difference  in  the  result.  The  average  price  of 
the  rolled  iron  imported  into  the  United  States  in  the  four  years  and 
two  months,  ending  November  30th,  1846,  was  $35.22£  per  ton.  The 
duty  was  $25.00  per  ton,  and  the  freight  to  Detroit  from  New  York, 
from  $7.00  to  $8.00  per  ton.  To  err  on  the  safe  side,  if  at  all,  we  will 
call  it  $7.00.  The  difference  in  the  freight  of  flour  was  more  than 
twenty-five  cents ;  but  I  will  assume  it  to  be  no  more,  and  call  the 
freight  $1.25  per  barrel.  The  calculation  stands  thus: 
100,000  Tons  of  rolled  iron  at 
35.22|  Average  of  four  years  and  two  months. 

$3,522,500  Cost  at  Liverpool. 

500,000  Freight  to  New  York. 

105,675  Insurance  at  3  per  cent. 

2,500,000  Duty  at  $25.00  per  ton. 

700,000  Freight  to  Detroit,  at  $7.00. 

$7,328,175     Cost  at  Detroit,  1843  to  1846. 

This  is  equal  to  $73.28  per  ton,  instead  of  $50.15  at  the  present 
time,  according  to  our  computation.  But  in  point  of  fact,  iron  in 
1846  would  have  cost  in  Detroit  over  $80.00,  and  it  has  been  laid  down 
there  during  the  past  summer,  at  $43.75.  The  results  of  our  calcula- 
tion, however,  make  a  case  quite  strong  enough.  The  flour  exported 
from  1843  to  1846  inclusive,  averaged  $4.79 ;  say  $4.75,  to  the  shipper. 
Deduct  freight  to  the  seaboard,  $1.25,  and  there  remains  $3.50  to  be 
realized  in  Detroit.  To  purchase  one  hundred  thousand  tons  of  iron  at 
the  price  of  $73.28  and  a  fraction  per  ton,  will  require  2.093.764  barrels 
of  flour  at  $3.50. 

That  is  to  say,  for  four  years  previous  to  the  30th  November,  1846, 
a  ton  of  iron  cost  the  purchaser  at  Detroit  twenty-one  barrels  of  flour : 
for  four  years  after  that  date,  it  cost  him  less  and  less  every  year ;  and 
for  the  last  year,  it  has  cost  him,  in  fact,  less  than  ten  and  a  half  barrels. 

If  we   measure  the  cost  of  the  same  ton  of  iron  in  corn,  which 


30 

could  be  brought  to  a  seaport  for  twenty-five  cents  a  bushel  during  the 
last  four  years,  and  for  thirty  cents  during  the  last  four  years  next  pre- 
ceding ;  the  corn,  which,  in  the  four  years  ending  in  1846,  sold  for  fifty- 
five  cents  a  bushel,  leaves  for  the  producer  twenty-five  cents ;  that  which 
was  shipped  in  the  next  four  years  brought  71.65,  about  seventy-one  and 
two-thirds  cents,  leaving  for  the  producer  46.65  per  bushel. 

One  ton  of  iron  at  $73.28  costs  293  bushels  at  25.00  cents. 
"      "        "  50.15    "      107      "          46.65    " 

But  if  we  suppose  the  purchaser  to  be  situated  one  hundred  miles 
south  of  Chicago,  in  Champaign  county,  Illinois,  the  ton  of  iron  which, 
after  the  Central  Railroad  is  opened,  he  can  buy  for  125  or  150  bushels 
of  corn,  would  have  cost  him  before  1846  from  eight  hundred  to  a 
thousand  bushels  of  corn.  A  change  of  itself  enough  to  make  the 
solitary  places  glad,  and  the  desert  to  rejoice  and  blossom  with  rich  abun- 
dance. 

The  increased  price  of  agricultural  products  since  1846  is  not  pecu- 
liar to  flour  and  corn;  it  extends  to  pork,  bacon,  wheat,  cotton,  pearlash, 
and  most  other  articles,  whether  used  for  food  or  otherwise. 

Wheat  sold  from  1843  to  1846  for    96|  cents. 
Deduct  freight  to  seaport,  30 

Remains  for  producer,  66|     " 

Wheat  sold  from  1847  to  1850  for  $1.29.6 
Deduct  freight  to  seaport,  .25 


Remains  for  the  producer,  $1.04.6 


One  ton  of  iron  at  73.28  costs  110  bushels  at  66|  cents. 


II      it      « 


at  50.15    "      48      "  at  $1.04.6. 


Ashes  sold  from  1843  to  1846  for     $62.85  per  ton. 
Deduct  freight  to  seaport,  8.00 

Remains  for  producer,  $54.85 

Ashes  sold  from  1847  to  1850  for     $94.91  per  ton. 
Deduct/reight  to  seaport,  6.00 

Remains  for  producer,  $88.91 

One  ton  of  iron  at  $73.28  costs  133  tons  ashes  at  $54.85. 
"    "    "    "    "    50.15    "      56£  "      "     "     88.91. 


31 

Cotton  sold  from  1843  to  1846  for  6.87  cents  per  pound. 
Deduct  freight  to  seaport,  57 

Remains  to  planter,  6.30  cents. 

Cotton  sold  from  1847  to  1850  for  8.417  cents  per  pound. 
Deduct  freight  to  seaport,  .417 

Remains  to  planter,  8        cents. 

One  ton  of  iron  at  $73.28  costs  1162  pounds  of  cotton  at  6.3  cts. 
"     "         "  50.15    "       627      "  "          8      " 

Nor  is  iron  the  only  great  article  of  import  that  has  fallen  in  cost. 
Most  imports  have  fallen  since  1846,  some  more,  some  less. 

If  we  take  the  article  of  brown  sugar,  which  next  after  iron,  mate- 
rials for  clothing,  and  coffee,  is  more  largely  imported  than  any  other 
commodity,  we  shall  find  that  the  advantage  gained  by  the  settler  in  this 
article  is  quite  as  great  as  in  iron.  Indeed,  the  cheapness  of  this  agree- 
able luxury  to  the  consumer  has  caused  the  consumption  to  be  doubled 
during  the  period  since  1846. 

Quantity  and  value  of  Brown  Sugar  imported. 

4  yrs.  and  2  mos.  to  30th  Nov.,  1846,  520,059,585  Ibs.    $20,448,428 
Which  is  per  year,  124,814,300   "          4,907,598 

At  a  cost  per  pound  of  3.932  cents. 

3  yrs.  and  7  mos.  from  30th  Nov.,  1846,  894,372,984  Ibs,  $31,437,131 
Which  is  per  year,  249,592,460  "         8,773,153 

At  a  cost  per  pound  of  3.515  cents. 

By  the  tariff  of  30th  Aug.,  1842,  brown  sugar  paid  a  duty  of  two  and 
a  half  cents  per  pound  ;  while  by  the  tariff  of  30th  July,  1846,  it  pays  but 
30  per  cent,  ad  valorem.  Eight  mills  will  convey  a  pound  of  sugar  quite 
as  far  into  Illinois  as  sixteen  mills  would  have  done  in  1844. 

One  million  of  pounds  of  brown  sugar  cost 

From  1843  to  1846.  1847  to  1850. 

$39,320  first  purchase.  $35,150  first  purchase. 

25,000  duty.  10,545  duty. 

5,000  freight.  4,000  freight. 

786  ins.  2  per  ct.  703  ins.  2  per  ct. 

16,000  freight  to  111.  8,000  freight  to  111. 

$86,106  $58, 398 


32 

One  million  of  pounds  of  sugar,  at  the  price  previous  to  Nov.  30th, 
1846,  or  $86,106,  costs  in  flour  at  $3.50  per  barrel,  24,601  barrels. 

At  the  price  since  30th  Nov.,  1846,  or  $58,398,  it  will  cost  the  con- 
sumer in  flour  at  $4.75  per  barrel,  12,294  barrels,  or  less  than  half 
the  amount  of  the  produce  of  his  soil  which  he  paid  in  1845,  or  on  the 
average  of  the  four  years  ending  in  November,  1846. 

If  this  million  of  pounds  of  sugar  were  paid  for  in  wheat,  at  the  price 
previous  to  Nov.,  1846,  it  would  cost  129,000  bush. 

But  at  the  price  since  that  time  only,  -  55,830  " 

Making  a  saving  of        -  73,170  bush. 

So  that  that  section  of  country  could  well  afford  to  double  its  con- 
sumption of  sugar,  as  in  fact  the  whole  country  has  done,  because  after 
paying  for  that  double  consumption,  there  will  still  remain  a  large  sur- 
plus for  other  purchases. 

If  paid  for  in  corn  at  the  prices  as  given  be- 
fore, this  quantity  of  sugar  would  cost  in  Illinois, 
in  the  first  period  given,  344,464  bushels. 

But  in  the  second  period,  125,184       " 

Making  a  saving  of  219,280  bushels. 

If  paid  in  pot  and  pearl  ashes,  it  would  cost, 
in  the  first  period,  ]  ,570  tons. 

In  the  second  period,  about  657  tons. 

Making  a  saving  of  913  tons. 

If  paid  for  in  cotton,  it  would  cost,  in  the 

first  period,  1,366,763 

In  the  second  period,  729,975 

Making  a  saving  of  636,788  pounds. 

The  cost  of  textile  fabrics,  both  imported  and  manufactured  at  home, 
has  also  diminished,  though  not  in  so  large  a  ratio  as  iron  and  sugar. 
The  same  is  true,  though  generally  in  a  less  degree,  of  almost  every  ar- 
ticle the  farmer  buys  ;  while  there  has  been  a  rise  in  price,  on  the  aver- 
age of  the  last  four  years  over  that  of  the  four  preceding,  on  almost  every 
article  the  farmer  sells. 

The  inducements  held  out  to  the  emigrant  to  settle  upon  the  public 
lands  of  the  Northwest,  have  never  before  been  so  great  as  since  1846, 
yet  there  cannot  be  a  question  that  the  facilities  of  communication,  soon 


to  be  created,  will  vastly  enhance  these  inducements.  They  will,  in  fact, 
carry  all  the  conveniences  and  refinements  of  old  and  densely  settled  so- 
cieties into  regions  where  the  price  of  land  is  almost  nominal,  compared 
with  older  States,  and  where  that  land  yields  almost  spontaneously,  for  a 
long  series  of  years,  harvests  whose  abundance  seems  almost  fabulous. 

I  have  shown  the  rates  at  which  population  has  increased  for  the  last 
ten  years,  and  have  submitted  estimates  founded  on  past  experience  and 
making  little  or  no  allowance  for  the  improved  circumstances  of  the  set- 
tler, such  as  I  have  just  been  examining.  One  question  only  remains  to 
be  now  considered.  Strong  as  are  the  inducements  to  emigrants  to  settle 
these  fertile  regions,  immensely  as  these  inducements  will  be  heightened 
and  strengthened  by  our  railroad  and  other  avenues  now  in  process  of 
construction,  are  there  sources  sufficient  to  supply  this  emigration  ?  if 
there  are  not,  the  progress  of  population  will  be  checked  for  want  of  sup- 
plies from  without.  New  England  and  six  other  of  the  old  States  which 
have  generally  supplied  emigrants  to  the  West,  have  usually  sent  out 
about  twenty  per  cent,  of  their  population  in  ten  years ;  but  as  they  are 
now  increasing  much  more  rapidly  at  home,  we  will  suppose  them  to  send 
out  but  12^  per  cent,  for  the  next  ten  years.  Their  whole  population 
being  6,898,082,  this  per  centage  would  give  an  immigration  to  the 
West  of  862,260. 

The  emigration  from  foreign  countries  has  been  increasing  very 
rapidly  for  the  last  four  years,  and  thus  far  this  year  is  twenty-five  per 
cent,  over  last  year,  at  New  York,  where  the  arrivals  are  most  numerous. 
If  we  suppose  it  to  increase  four  per  cent,  only  each  year,  from  last 
year,  and  allow  for  the  natural  increase  after  arrival,  we  shall  have 
an  increase  to  the  population,  from  this  source,  in  the  next  ten  years, 
of  4,508,600  as  per  Table  G. 

To  which  add  from  old  States,         *&•        862,260 


And  the  total  is,        -  -      5,370,860 

Of  this  sum,  certainly  more  than  four  and  a  half  millions  will  be  added 

to  the  Northwestern  States. 

The  population  of  these  States  is  for  the  three  older,  3,827,582 

The  four  younger,  1,581,870 

Total  seven  Northwestern  States,  -  5,409,452 

Add  natural  increase  for  ten  years,       -  1,803,150 

Addition  from  emigration,  say,     •'-  *  4,500,000 

Total  for  1860,     -        -        £      -        •        -  11,712,602 
5 


34 

This  is  two  and  a  half  millions  more  than  our  former  calculations,  and 
serves  to  demonstrate  that  the  data  on  which  they  were  founded  are  at 
least  not  extravagant. 

Let  us  see  what  increase  we  may  allow  to  each  Northwestern  State, 
and  still  be  within  the  limits  of  this  total. 

Ohio  receives  nothing  from  emigration.  Indiana  receives  less  from 
emigration  than  New  York  and  Georgia  send  out  in  ten  years.  We 
may  omit  Ohio  and  Indiana  therefore  in  disposing  of  the  emigration 
from  abroad,  yet  to  be  beyond  the  reach  of  cavil  here  we  will  allow  them 
to  receive  250,000  of  these  emigrants. 

I  place  then  in  the  first  column  the  rate  per  cent,  at  which  I  assumed 
the  Northwestern  States  would  advance,  and  the  population  for  1860  at 
that  rateon  the  next  column ;  I  then  give  an  assumed  rate  for  each  State, 
with  the  population  at  that  rate,  so  as  to  produce  a  total  still  short  of 
what  emigration  will  provide  for. 

Inc.  from  1850.  Pop.  in  1860.  In.per  cent.  Pop.  in  1860. 

Ohio  30  per  cent.  -    2,576,522    37.57    2,726,522 

Indiana  45  per  cent.  -        -     1,435,874    55.98    1,535,874 
Illinois  110.4  per  cent.,       -    1,798,854  175        2,352,316 


5,811,250  6,614,712 

Michigan  72.94  per  cent.,  695,317  100  804,082 

Wisconsin  220.95  per  cent.,  970,620  300  1,222,152 

Missouri  76.02  per  cent.,  1,200,540  100  1,364,088 

Iowa  163.42  per  cent,  506,408  200  576,741 

3,372,885  3,967,063 

Three  older  States,  6,614,712 

Four  younger  States,  3,967,063 

Number  at  the  rates  given,  10,581,775 

And  this  leaves  still  more  than  a  million  to  be  disposed  of.  If  it  be 
said  that  a  million  more  than  I  have  supposed  will  remain  in  the  old 
States,  it  must  be  because  land  in  the  new  States  will  have  risen  to  a 
higher  level  than  its  value  considering  its  distance  from  market.  But 
the  accessible  lands  of  the  West  cannot  generally  reach  this  level  until 
long  after  all  the  lands  within  fifteen  miles  of  the  Illinois  Central  Rail- 
road have  risen  to  prices  far  above  the  average  of  the  lands  of  Ohio. 

The  population  assigned  to  Illinois  in  this  distribution  would  give  her 
a  DODulation  of  forty-two  to  the  square  mile  ;  in  which  case  the  lands  of 


35 

the  whole  State  should  average  over  ten  dollars  to  the  acre,  a  result 
that  would  not  be  reached  without  raising  the  lands  on  the  line  of  the 
railroad  to  more  than  fifteen  dollars  per  acre. 

It  is  safe,  then,  to  assume  that  the  land  belonging  to  the  United 
States  in  Illinois,  already  reduced  more  than  five  millions  of  acres, 
below  its  amount  in  June,  1850,  by  the  grant  of  more  than  two  and  a 
half  millions  to  the  Central  Railroad,  by  the  grant  of  all  the  swamp 
lands,  and  by  the  sales  and  location  of  land  warrants,  will  all  be  taken 
up,  so  far  as  they  are  made  accessible,  in  much  less  than  ten  years'  time, 
and  that  the  lands  remaining  in  the  hands  of  the  trustees,  pledged  for 
the  bonds  of  the  Company,  will  rise  to  an  average  value  of  from  ten  to 
twelve  dollars  in  a  period  perhaps  not  exceeding  ten  years  from  the 
present  date,  certainly  not  exceeding  ten  years  from  the  opening  of  the 
railroad  running  through  the  whole  length  of  these  lands. 

It  may  be  proper  to  remark  that  the  lands  of  Ohio,  of  which  I  gave 
the  official  value  in  the  outset,  include  much  that  is  of  inferior  quality 
and  much  not  easily  accessible,  and  that  if  we  take  only  such  of  their 
lands  as  ought  fairly  to  be  compared  to  the  lands  on  the  line  of  our  road, 
citizens  of  Ohio  uniformly  estimate  them  at  from  twenty-five  to  fifty 
dollars  an  acre. 

To  recapitulate,  I  have  shown  that  our  lands  lie  along  the  natural 
route  of  the  greatest  thoroughfare  on  the  continent,  that  connecting  the 
Northeast  and  the  Basin  of  the  lakes  with  the  Southwest  and  Gulf 
of  Mexico,  and  thence  with  the  coast  of  the  Pacific  ;  that  the  land 
between  the  Middle  States  and  Illinois  is  taken  up ;  that  the  younger 
States  have  a  vast  surface  of  land  which  is  inaccessible  ;  that  the  small 
portion  which  is  accessible  is  settled  already  more  densely  than  Illinois ; 
that  Illinois,  notwithstanding  her  embarrassments,  has  sold  more  land  and 
added  greater  numbers  to  her  population  than  any  other  State  of  the 
Northwest ;  that  this  is  what  should  be  expected  from  the  fertility  of 
her  soil ;  that  where  her  land  is  open  to  easy  access  the  increase  in 
numbers  and  wealth  is  amazing  and  almost  incredible  ;  and  that  the 
districts  through  which  our  road  runs  are  only  waiting  for  an  avenue  to 
market  to  advance  at  the  same  rate.  I  have  shown  our  exports  of  the 
products  of  the  Northwest  increasing  from  seventy-one  millions  to  one 
hundred  and  seventy-one  millions  of  dollars  in  value  in  four  years  ;  while 
such  is  the  increase  of  population  not  agricultural,  from  increased  manu- 
factures, navigation,  commerce,  and  city  life,  that  together  with  the 
demand  for  export,  they  have  caused  the  prices  of  all  north-western 
products  to  rule  higher,  in  spite  of  the  vastly  augmented  number  of 
producers. 


36 

I  have  shown  that  the  settler  in  Illinois  may  obtain  much  more  of  all 
that  he  wishes  to  buy  for  a  given  amount  of  his  produce,  and  for  some  of 
the  most  important  articles  at  least  twice  as  much  as  he  could  do  five 
or  six  years  ago.  Consequently  inducements  to  settlers  are  stronger  now 
than  ever ;  and  when  we  find  emigration  proceeding  at  a  rate  which  will 
add  five  or  six  millions  to  the  population  in  ten  years,  we  inquire  to 
what  section  of  the  country  will  these  emigrants  be  drawn,  and  find  no 
reason  why  Illinois  should  not,  as  she  has  done  for  several  years  past, 
receive  a  larger  number  than  any  other  State. 

Calculating  her  increase  of  population  at  rates  far  below  what  our 
data  will  justify,  we  find  it  reaches  a  density  which  has  never  failed  to 
give  to  land  a  value  much  higher  than  is  fully  adequate  to  discharge  the 
whole  amount  of  the   bonds  to  be  predicated  on  our  land,  in  less  than 
half  the  time  they  have  to  run.     The  remaining  half  of  that  period  is 
certainly  a  sufficient  time  to  be  allowed  for  all  possible   contingencies 
of  war,  pestilence,  or  other  disturbances  of  the  ordinary  current  of  events. 
I  consider  then  that  any  estimate  which  shall  give  to  the  lands  belong- 
ing to  the  Company  an  average  value  of  from  ten  to  twelve  dollars  an 
acre,  to  be  reached  in  twelve  or  fourteen  years  from  this  date,  is  amply 
sustained  by  the  facts  presented  in  this  communication. 
I  have  the  honor  to  be, 
Very  respectfully, 

Your  obt.  servant, 

ROBERT  RANTOUL,  JR. 
ROBERT  SCHUYLER,  Esq., 
President  of  the 

Illinois  Central  Railroad, 
New  York. 


37 


TABLE  A. 
Area  of  Northwestern  States  and  Land  unsold  on  the  30th  June,  1850. 


States. 

Sq.  Miles. 

Acres. 

Unsold. 

Swamp. 

Ohio, 

39,964 

25,576,960 

367,742 

303,329 

Indiana, 

33,809 

21,637,760 

1,511,266 

981,682 

Illinois, 

55,405 

35,459,200 

11,449,471 

1,833,412 

129,178         82,673,920        13,328,479        3,118,423 


Michigan,'  - 
Wisconsin, 

56,243 
53,924 

35,995,520 
34,511,360 

20,215,749 
24,774,656 

4,544,189 
1,259,269 

Missouri,    - 

67,380 

43,123,200 

27,275,029 

1,517,287 

Iowa, 

50,914 

32,584,960 

26,512,387 

33,813 

228,461       146,215,040        98,777,821        7,354,558 


TABLE  B. 

Showing  the  Population  and  Number  to  a  square  mile  of  the  Northwestern 
States  in  1840  and  in  1850. 


States. 

Pop.  in  1840. 

Per  sq.  mile. 

Pop.  in  1850. 

Per  sq.  mile. 

Ohio,    -   - 

1,519,467 

34.46 

1,981,940 

49.58 

Indiana,    - 

685,866 

20.28 

990,258 

29.29 

Illinois, 

476,183 

8.59      . 

855,384 

15.45 

2,681,516 

20.76 

3,827,582 

29.63 

Michigan,    - 

212,267 

3.77 

402,041 

7.15 

Wisconsin,  - 

30,945 

.57 

305,538 

5.65 

Missouri, 

383,702 

5.69 

682,044 

10.12 

Iowa,     - 

43,112 

.84 

192,247 

3.77 

670,026 


2.93 


1,581,870 


RECAPITULATION. 

Three  older,       2,681,516        20.76  3,827,582 

Four  younger,       670,026          2.93  1,581,870 


3,351,542         9.37 


5,409,452 


6.92 


29.63 
6.92 

11.82 


These  figures  may  require  to  be  slightly  altered  on  the  publication  of  the  cor- 
rected census. 


TABLE  C. 

Showing  the  quantities  of  Land  sold,  granted,  and  otherwise  conveyed,  in  the 
Northwestern  States,  up  to  June  30, 1850,  and  the  average  number  of  acres 
per  head  to  the  population  of  each  State. 

State.  Acres  parted  with  to  June  30,  1850.  Acres  per  head. 

Ohio,  -        -        25,209,218  12.70 

Indiana,  -  20,126,494  20.36 

Illinois,  -        -        24,009,728          -  -        28.00 


69,345,440  18.13 

Michigan,    -        -»        15,779,771  40.00 

Wisconsin,  -                   9,736,704  32.00 

Missouri,     -                 15,848,171  23.16 

Iowa,          -        -          6,072,573  -        -        31.60 


47,437,219  30.10 


TABLE  D. 

Showing  the  actual  Increase  of  eleven  States  from  which  emigration  has  been 
usual,  with  the  rate  of  increase  and  the  number  emigrating. 

States.  1830.  1840.         In.perct.        1850.        In.perct. 

N.  E.  without  Maine,  1,555,252  1,732,990  11.43  2,146,476  23.86 
N.  J.,Del.,Md.  &D.  C.,  884,469  964,357  9.03  1,206,608  25.12 
Va.,  N.  C.,  &  S.  C.,  2,530,577  2,587,614  2.25  2,961,980  14.08 


4,970,298     5,284,961      6.33     6,315,064    19.50 

Natural  increase  33£  -        1,656,766         1,761,653 

Actual  increase,        -        -        -  314,663         1,030,103 


Emigration,  .  -        1,342,103  731,550 

Natural  increase  1840  to  1850,    -      1,761,653 
Increase  of  at  6. 33  only,        -      -         334,714 

Emigration  at  that  rate,         -      -       1,426,939 
Actual  emigration,  ...          731,550 


Less  than  the  rate  from  1840  to  1850,    095,389 


39 


•TABLE  E. 

Showing  the  Population  and  Valuation  of  the  thirteen  Counties  on  the  line 
of  the  Chicago  and  Galena  Railroad  in  1840  and  1849. 


Counties. 

Pop.  1840. 

1850. 

Vol.  1840. 

Vol.  1849. 

Jo  Davies, 

-    6,180 

18,767 

383,715 

2,785,225 

Stephenson, 

-    2,800 

11,666 

125,485 

837,685 

Winnebago, 

-    4,609 

11,731 

222,630 

1,564,617 

McHenry,    - 

-    2,578 

15,800 

88,930 

1,545,277 

Lake,      -     - 

-    2,634 

14,134 

95,385 

1,222,088 

DeKalb,       - 

-    1,697 

7,544 

66,945 

720,108 

Kane,      -    - 

-    6,551 

16,242 

289,565 

1,442,001 

Du  Page,     - 

-    3,535 

9,290 

196,290 

943,503 

Cook,      -    - 

-  10,201 

43,280 

1,864,205 

7,617,102 

Boone,     -     - 

-    1,705 

7,627 

55,990 

717,292 

Kendall,  -    - 

new 

7,730 

1,205,739 

Carroll,    -    - 

-    1,023 

4,586 

65,345 

370,372 

Ogle,        -    - 

-     3,479 

10,020 

175,555 

971,230 

46,992      178,417        3,630,040       21,942,239 

Population  in  1840,  46,992.     Valuation,  $3,630,040.     Per  head,  $77.25. 

Population  in  1850,  178,417,  by  United  States  census. 

Deduct   15,000,  increase  1849  to  1850. 

Population  in  1849,  163,417.     Valuation,  $21,942,239.    Per  head,  $134.27. 

TABLE  F 

Showing  the  Exports  of  Vegetable  Food  and  Animal  Products,  from  1843  to 
1850,  inclusive. 

Animal.  Vegetable. 

1843,  -  -  -  353,963,694  S6.955.908 

1844,  -  -  6,149,379  11,239,437 

1845,  -  -  -  6,206,394  9,810,508 

1846,  -  -  -  7,833,864  19,329,585 


1847, 
1848, 
1849, 
1850, 


24,153,331 

11,113,074 

12,538,896 
13,153,302 
10,549,383 

$47,354,655 


47,335,438 

57,070,356 
25,185,647 
25,642,362 
15,822,373 

$123,720,738 


40 


TABLE  G-. 
Sources  of  emigration  to  the  Northwest  from  1850  to  1860. 

Twelve  old  States.  Population  in  1850. 

New  England,  2,729,494 

Delaware,  Maryland,  including  Dist.  Colura- )      ,  oAg  gno 

bia  and  New  Jersey,  -  ) 

Virginia  and  the  colonies,         -        -        -          2,961,980 

Total  of  States  sending  out  emigrants,        -        6,898,082 
Emigration  at  12£  per  cent.,  862,260 

Emigrants  arriving  in  the  United  States  in  1849,  299,610;  in  1850, 
315,333. 

From  January  1, 1851,  to  Sept.  2,  1851,  eight  months,  there  arrived  at  New 
York  alone  198,288.  They  are  now  arriving  at  the  rate  of  more  than  one 
thousand  per  day.  The  arrivals  at  New  York  exceed  by  25  per  cent,  those  of 
last  year.  Suppose  the  increase  of  each  year  to  be  four  per  cent,  only,  and  we 
have  for 

1851,  -        327,946  1856,        -        398,985 

1852,  341,055  1857,  414,944 

1853,  354,697  1858,  431,541 

1854,  368,885  1859,  448,804 

1855,  -        383,640  1860,        -        466,756 


Total  for  five  years,      1,776,223  2,161,030 

Increase  20  percent.,    355,244  Increase  10  per  cent.,  216,103 


2,131,467  2,377,133 

2,131,467 


Total  emigration  for  ten  years,  with  increase,     -        -        4,508,600 


